Stab Premium Member Wins $20,000 On A $10 Surf Bet - Stab Mag

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Pays to play. Sometimes. Photo: WSL

Stab Premium Member Wins $20,000 On A $10 Surf Bet

Betting tips for today, tomorrow, and beyond.

news // May 2, 2022
Words by Michael Ciaramella
Reading Time: 3 minutes

How’s your sex life?

Sorry…wrong awkward personal question. Let me try again.

How’s your surf betting going?

If you’ve been following Stab’s coverage of the Championship Tour this year, you know that we’ve partnered with Betonline.ag to help provide our readers with tips and insights around surf betting. And if you’ve been following our lead, you’ve been having a decent go.

Pipe earnings: +$465
Bells earnings: +$337
Margs earnings (thus far): +$177
(Did not bet on Sunset or Portugal)

Considering I started the season with a $500 investment, I’m up almost 200% overall (which is about 400% better than my current investment portfolio). A fine return by any standard, unless of course you compare me to an aononymous Stab Premium member, who recently won over $20,000 on a $10 surf bet.

Yes, f’real.

While we’ve decided to keep this person’s name redacted, I can confirm that our punter is a great surfer and avid Stab CUSP listener. Stace and I have an Instagram DM thread going with the guy, where he sent us the following video. All we could do was applaud.

As you can see, our man placed a $10 multi bet on 9 heats in Men’s Round 1 at Margies. In order to win a multi bet, every single one of your picks must hit. If you win 8 heats and lose the last, you get no money. Sorry not sorry.

Considering Round 1 heats have three surfers apiece, the odds of calling 9/9 heats correctly is 19,683-to-one, but that’s before taking into consideration how likely one surfer is to beat another in relation to their ability/location knowledge/etc. Based on the price of each surfer, our punter’s odds were just over $2,000-to-one, hence the $20k payout on a $10 bet.

He picked: Jackson Baker, Zeke Lau, John Florence, Kanoa Igarashi, Filipe Toledo, Ethan Ewing, Connor O’Leary, Joao Chiana, and Leonardo Fioravanti.

“The Italian Stallion (Leonardo Fioravanti) brought it home in the last minute,” Stab’s now-37th wealthiest reader told us. “Watching him overcook that floater nearly destroyed my soul. The judges were kind to me.”

Imagine, for a second, that you had $20k on the line and Leonardo Fioravanti just botched a move he should have mastered at age 6. Thankfully for our friend (and Leo), the judges were generous this day.

So, what’s daddy bagz gonna do with the kitty?

“Not sure, I’m still pretty blown away,” he replied. “I’m thinking of taking the fam on a trip, maybe something that we would never normally do because of the cost — like the Maldives in one of those pimping resorts where there are just old dudes and only five people surfing. Be good to make it a lifetime memory.”

And goddamn, this gets me horny for Betonline.ag to start allowing multi bets (aka ‘parlays’) on surfing. Aparently it’s coming soon.

For now, we’ll have to stick with individual heat-by-heat and event winner picks. Here’s where I’m at for Round 3 at Margies today (should be cooking btw).

– $10 on Callum Robson at -130 to win $8
– $5 on Jadson Andre at +240 to win $12
– $10 on Leo Fioravanti at +275 to win $28
– $5 on Ryan Callinant at +375 to win $19
– $20 on Jackson Baker at +135 to win $27
– $10 on Zeke Lau at +175 to win $18*

As you can probably tell by the amount being bet, I don’t feel the odds are favorable enough to go hard on anyone this round. After winning $125 on a $25 bet in Round 2 (Jaddy over Slates + WC), I’m gonna lay low and wait for the right time to strike.

I also still have the following bets outstanding for potential comp winners:

– $100 on Filipe Toledo at +350 to win $350 (I made this bet accidentally but also don’t hate it)
– $200 on JJF at +350 to win $700
– $10 on Zeke Lau at +4000 to win $400
– $25 to Jack Robbo at +1000 to win $250

Place your own bets here.

*just waiting to confirm that Zeke Lau isn’t gonna be kicked out of the comp for that incident before I place the bet.

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