Who Nathan Florence Is Betting On For Olympic Gold

It is said that the safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket.

While Nathan Florence isn’t exactly folding his cash, his risk isn’t uncalculated either. From the placid comfort of his North Shore pad, about 4,000 km north of where 21 national teams are itching to hear the starting horn at Teahupoo, the 2023 Stab Surfer Of The Year offered some insights into who might sink their teeth into Olympic gold. So, if you’re feeling lucky and want to turn your pocket change into slightly more (or less) pocket change, read on for the oracle of Nate.

Nathan begins with a crash course in surf forecasting, attempting to predict the swell we might see for the event using some of the most reliable (yet unreliable) surf forecasting websites. Initially calling for “six to eight foot, maybe some rogue ten-footers coming through on competition day.” The swell all but vanished within hours of the video’s upload. No wonder his older brother in Tahiti called this forecast “an emotional roller coaster.”

Men’s Top Picks

If the odds weren’t a factor in solid conditions, Nate wouldn’t stray from the crowd favorites: Gabriel Medina (+200) and brother John Florence (+250). Jack Robinson (+550) and Kauli Vaast (+650) get a nod, though he questions the local surfer’s experience in handling the pressure of major events. Debatable?

Men’s Underdogs

Nate taps João Chianca (+2000) and Ramzi Boukhiam (+2500) as his underdog picks. “These two guys are insane barrel riders, incredibly technical.” What sets these surfers apart for Nate is their ability to “turn up under pressure.” João has made a name for himself from the moment he got on tour with a crazy performance at heavy Pipeline, while Ramzi recently made it to the semis in his Teahupoo debut, losing only to event winner Italo Ferreira.

Women’s Top Picks

On the women’s side, Vahine Fierro (+300) is Nate’s top pick, followed by Molly Picklum (+750) and Caity Simmers (+500). Despite not being on tour, Vahine’s recent Tahiti Pro win explains why her odds are far from underdog territory. As for Simmers and Picklum, their elite tube-riding skills and flair make them undeniable contenders.

Women’s Underdogs

Far from underdogs but with tempting odds, Nate considers both Carissa Moore (+800) and Tyler Wright (+1000) capable of bringing home the bacon for punters. As for his proper underdog pick, Luana Silva (+2500) is a surfer who Nate says “has spent a ton of time in Hawaii, in those heavy conditions,” and “should be more comfortable than others (out there).”

Wrapping up with a bittersweet shout-out, Nate can’t help but lament Moana Jones‘ absence from the Olympics — his pick for Women’s gold otherwise.

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