So, Who’s In Position To Qualify For The Olympics Right Now?

With the 2019 ISA World Games in the rearview (And did you watch finals day? Exciting, no?), we’re beginning to see a much clearer picture of which surfers will comprise our first batch of Olympians. 

As much as you, the fans, might hate the idea surfing in the Olympics, you also have to recognize how impactful this can be for the athletes. Not only is it generally exciting to be invited to such a historic event alongside the best athletes in the world, but the Olympics also open a whole new realm of career and financial opportunities for surfers.

Kanoa Igarashi was the first surfer officially confirmed for Tokyo 2020, and his stock has nearly doubled in the past year for that very reason. The same should happen to any surfer who qualifies for the 2020 Games (even the ones who just have a “provisional” slot at this point).

Below is a list of all surfers (*to our knowledge; let us know if we missed anyone in the comments) who are either officially or provisionally qualified, or currently in line for an Olympic bid. 

Official: this surfer is guaranteed to surf in Tokyo 2020

Kanoa Igarashi (Japan)
CT rank: 7 

Back in 2018, Kanoa made the official switch from an American to Japanese surfer for the sake of his Olympic future. While there’s a decent chance that Kanoa would have qualified for USA’s Olympic squad via his CT standings*, Iggy guaranteed his Tokyo 2020 appearance by penning a deal with the Japanese government which secured his place on their national team, in Kanoa’s words, “whether I’m injured, whether I don’t have a leg, whether my neck gets broken,” etc.

In case you forgot, as the host nation of the 2020 Olympics, Japan was guaranteed one slot into both the male and female surfing events. There were no stipulations around how they elected these surfers, giving the Japan Olympic Committee authority to grant Kanoa this honor years in advance. With that said, as the current number seven ranked CT surfer, it’s likely Kanoa will qualify for the Olympics on his own merits. 

Provisional: these surfers currently have a slot in Tokyo 2020, but it could be taken away if they are outperformed by any like-gendered compatriots in the 2019 CT or 2020 ISA World Games

Female

Shino Matsuda (Japan) 
QS Rank: 59

As the highest-placing Asian in the 2019 ISA World Games, and with no current female Japanese CT surfers to block her, the only way Shino doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two female Japanese competitors make the top-6 eligible surfers in the 2020 ISA World Games.

Anat Leilor (Israel)
QS rank: 47

As the highest-placing European in the 2019 ISA World Games, and with no current Israeli CT surfers to block her, the only way Anat doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two female Israelis make the top-6 eligible surfers in the 2020 ISA World Games.

Ella Williams (New Zealand)
QS rank: 50

You might be wondering why a high-ranking Australian surfer, like Sally Fitzgibbons, who made the semifinals of the 2019 ISA World Games, didn’t get this slot. That’s because Australian women will inevitably qualify for Tokyo 2020 via their CT rankings, leaving the ISA window open for a Kiwi like Ella. As the highest-placing Kiwi in the 2019 WSG, and with only one current New Zealand CTer to block her (Paige Hareb), the only way Ella doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if a female Kiwi makes the top-6 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Bianca Buitendag (South Africa)
QS rank: 43

As the highest-placing African in the 2019 ISA World Games, and with no current South African CT surfers to block her, the only way Bianca doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two female South Africans make the top-6 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Daniella Rosas (Peru)
QS rank: 110

As the winner of the 2019 PASA Games—which took the qualification status of the 2019 ISA World Games for surfers in the Americas (this is why Sofia Mulanovich’s 2019 ISA World Surfing Games victory didn’t earn her an Olympic bid)—Daniella earned herself a tentative Tokyo 2020 slot. With no current Peruvian CT surfers to block her, the only way Daniella doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two female Peruvians make the top-6 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Males

Shun Murakami (Japan)
QS rank: 180

As the highest-placing Asian in the 2019 ISA World Games (his second copper medal in as many years!), and with just one Japanese CTer to block him (Kanoa Igarashi), the only way Shun doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if one male Japanese competitor (likely Hiroto Ohara) makes the top-4 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Frederico Morais (Portugal)
QS rank: 30

As the highest-placing European in the 2019 ISA World Games, and with no current Portuguese CT surfers to block him, the only way Frederico doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two male Portuguese competitors make the top-4 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Billy Stairmand (New Zealand)
QS rank: 58

As the highest-placing Aus-Pacific surfer in the 2019 ISA World Games, and with just one current Kiwi CTer to block him (Ricardo Christie), the only way Billy doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if one male Kiwi makes the top-4 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Ramzi Boukhiam (Morocco)
QS rank: 76

As the highest-placing African in the 2019 ISA World Games, and with no current Morrocan CT surfers to block him, the only way Ramzi doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two male Morrocans make the top-4 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Lucca Mesinas
QS rank: 109

As the winner of the 2019 PASA Games—which took the qualification status of the 2019 ISA World Games for surfers in the Americas—Lucca earned himself a tentative Tokyo 2020 slot. With no current Peruvian CT surfers to block him, the only way Lucca doesn’t get into Tokyo 2020 is if two male Peruvians make the top-6 eligible surfers of the 2020 ISA World Games.

Likely: These surfers are ranked high enough on the CT (in relation to their compatriots) to make a 2020 Olympic bid probable.

Females (Reminder: eight women, but only two from each country, will qualify for the 2020 Olympics via the 2019 CT):

Carissa Moore (USA)
CT rank: 1

As the highest-ranking American on the Women’s CT by over 7,000 points, it’s likely Carissa will earn a spot in Tokyo 2020

Sally Fitzgibbons (Australia)
CT rank: 2

As the highest-ranking Australia on the Women’s CT, and with the third-highest surfer (Bronte Macaulay) being nearly 20,000 points behind her, it’s almost guaranteed Sally will earn a spot in Tokyo 2020.

Steph Gilmore (Australia)
CT rank: 3

Just a couple thousand points behind Sally is her compatriot Steph Gilmore, who for the same reasons as Sal, will almost definitely surfing in the 2020 Olympics. 

Tatiana Weston-Webb (Brazil)
CT rank: 8

With only two Brazilian females on the CT, and currently ranked number eight in the world behind a gaggle of Aussies and Americans, it’s practically guaranteed that Tati will surf in Tokyo 2020.

Brisa Hennessy (Costa Rica)
CT rank: 9

With no other Ticas on Tour, and currently ranked number nine in the world behind a gaggle of Aussies and Americans, it’s almost guaranteed that Brisa will compete in the 2020 Games. 

Johanne Defay (France)
CT rank: 10

With no other Frenchies on Tour, and currently ranked number ten in the world behind a gaggle of Aussies and Americans, it’s almost guaranteed that Johanne will compete in the 2020 Games.

Silvana Lima (Brazil)
CT rank: 13

With only two Brazilian females on the CT, and currently ranked number thirteen in the world behind the very same aforementioned gaggle of Aussies and Americans, it’s relatively likely that Silvana will surf in Tokyo 2020.

Lakey/Courtney/Caroline/Malia/ (USA)
CT ranks: 4/5/6/7 resp.

One of these four women will likely earn the final American spot in Tokyo 2020 (barring any late charges from straggler Seppos), but it’s currently too close of a race to make any speculations. 

Males (Reminder: ten men, but only two from each country, will qualify for the 2020 Olympics via the 2019 CT, and Kanoa already has one of those ten spots):

Jordy Smith (South Africa)
CT rank: 2

As the sole South African on Tour and ranked number two in the world, Jordy is all but guaranteed a slot in Tokyo 2020. 

Kolohe Andino (USA)
CT rank: 3

As the highest-ranked American on Tour by 15,000 (the injured JJF not included), it’s highly probable that Kolohe will retain a high enough seed to earn a 2020 Olympic bid.

Filipe/Gabby/Italo (Brazil)
CT ranks: 1/4/6 resp. 

Two of these three Brazilian surfers will inevitably qualify for Tokyo 2020 (barring any late charges from the straggler Brazilians), but it’s currently too close of a race to make any speculations.

Owen/Julian/Ryan/Wade (Australia)
CT ranks: 8/=11/=11/17 resp.

Two of these four Aussies will likely qualify for Tokyo 2020 (barring any late charges from the straggler convicts), but it’s currently too close of a race to make any speculations.

JJF/Seth/Kelly/Conner (USA)
CT ranks: 5/9/10/15 resp.

One of these four men will likely earn the final American spot in Tokyo 2020 (barring any late charges from the straggler Seppos), but it’s currently too close of a race to make any speculations.

Michel/Jeremy/Joan (France)
CT ranks: 13/14/21 resp.

One or two of these four men will likely earn a spot in Tokyo 2020 (depending on whether or not Ricardo Christie can surpass two or more of them in the rankings), but, as I said before, it’s currently too close of a race to make any speculations.

*Had he not switched nations, Kanoa would have been the second highest-rated American CT surfer in 2018, and would be currently third in 2019, behind the injured John John Florence, who he will likely pass before season’s end.