2024 WSL Finals — Live Updates, Commentary, Betting Talk, And Conjecture

Decisions, decisions. 

We’ll see two significant ones today. 

Lowers will systematically decide who is worthy of the WSL’s 2024 World Titles. 

Since the League introduced this format in 2021, the #1 ranked men’s surfer has defended their position and won the World Title three out of three times. This has happened only one out of three times on the women’s side. 

Today’s top-ranked surfers — John John Florence and Caity Simmers — are also the most adored in today’s draw. We have data to support this: In the 2023 Stab reader survey (2024 results coming soon), you chose John as your favorite surfer. Caity ranked second, barely behind Steph Gilmore, who isn’t competing this year. 

Here are the matchups: 

Match 1: Italo Ferreira vs Ethan Ewing 
Match 2: Winner of Match 1 vs Jack Robinson 
Match 3: Winner of Match 2 vs Jack Griffin Colapinto  
Title Match: Winner of Match 3 vs John John Florence in a best-of-three  

Match 1: Tatiana Weston-Webb vs Molly Picklum
Match 2: Winner of Match 1 vs Brisa Hennessy 
Match 3: Winner of Match 2 vs Caroline Marks
Title Match: Winner of Match 3 vs Caity Simmers in a best-of-three  

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Want to zoom in on details like which three goofy-footers have won an event here since 1995, how today’s forecasted 2.4-feet at 15-second swell compares to last year, and what fins people are using? Head here. 

But keep this tab open. We’ll update this page with a heat-by-heat breakdown as things progress. And if you want to win a free board, get busy in the comment section. The mind behind our favorite comment will get a new board beneath their feet, courtesy of us. I plan to cover the first six matchups, then pass the torch and get busy with you on Disqus. Holden Trnka is on the beach and, by day’s end, will let you know what the broadcast didn’t see.

Before we get started, here’s a little something to consider.  

In 2015, six surfers showed up to Pipeline with a chance to win the World Title. 

That year also saw events at Snapper, Bells, WA, Rio, Fiji, J-Bay, Tahiti, Lowers, France, and Portugal and generally found good waves. A surfer’s best nine out of eleven results counted towards their end-of-year tally. 

Then Pipe cooked. And Adriano de Souza won. 

I think we can look back and celebrate a man who came from very little, and was given relatively little support or even respect from the surf industry, pulling it off. But, at the time, people in our little slice of the surf world weren’t exactly rejoicing.

The insight here? Sometimes, it’s better to enjoy things rather than find endless reasons to complain.

And so I invite you all to start the engines of your Lexus NX Plug-In Hybrids, buckle up, put on the latest episode of Dave Prodan’s podcast, and merge onto the five-lane highway that is your 2024 WSL Finals.

Women’s Match 1: Tatiana Weston-Webb vs Molly Picklum

Tatiana Weston-Webb was one turn away from winning this event in 2021. She’ll have to do 50-60 of them (five per wave, top two waves per heat, five or six heats) if she wants to use that redemption voucher today.

With thirty-five-minute heats, it’d take her at least 2.9 hours of surfing to get there. But, hey, Steph did it.

She opens in the first few minutes with three turns, the first of which was sharp. Molly follows up with a quick carve and a closeout layback. Tati gets a 5. Molly gets a 4.5. We get a heat.

Molly stays busy but doesn’t connect. Tati gets the ol’ backhand grandfather clock pendulum swinging for a 6.17. And then a lull — in Southern California, who would have guessed!

Molly gets a 3.5 for a series of inconsequential turns. Tati gets a 6.57 for two solid turns. It’s the highest score of the heat thus far, which is the judicial branch signaling a preference for maneuver quality over quantity. Good news.

With five minutes left and Molly needing an 8.24, Tati could have sat out the back and kept priority after Molly fell on one. She bites on another right but fails to better her 6.17.

Molly uses priority to surf her best wave of the heat, but it’s a 4.9. She’s probably happy this thing is heading to Fiji next year.

Men’s Match 1: Italo Ferreira vs Ethan Ewing

Pre-heat, the webcast flashes a vision of Ethan flanked by Mick Fanning and Bede Durbidge on each side. I’m not sure you can lose a heat after that.

Chris Cote calls them in with the Olympics/WWF thing, and we’re off.

Three minutes in, Italo opens with three turns. We have reached a point where “energy” is attached to his name like “grace” with Steph. Energy cannot be created or destroyed. But Ethan fucking destroys a wave with three turns that must’ve made Mick n Bede happy. Italo finds a long wave and does a mix of 10 (I counted) turns and floaters. The judges must now choose which nationality of commenter to infuriate.

Ethan gets an 8.33. Italo a 7.67. 2.77 points per turn for Ethan, 0.77 points per turn for Italo. Quality over quantity, people — and that’s not to say Italo’s turns were bad.

Italo gets a few waves (synonyms for energy: zeal, spirit, vivacity…) but nothing consequential. Ethan gets a longer wave featuring more mallets than sledgehammers and gets a 5.67. Twenty minutes left, and it still feels like anyone’s heat.

Once again, it’d require either 2.9 or 3.5 hours of water time for either of these guys to win a Title today. That doesn’t seem to be slowing them down, as both go on subpar waves that don’t factor in. A lull settles things down.

Italo uses priority on a small but good-walled wave. He surfs aggressively but bobbles on his second and third turn, then recovers with a finner-spinner. He gets a 5.73, which feels high. Then he switches into catch-everything mode. A left allows him to start and end with an air rev, which brings him a 7 and the lead. Ethan goes on one, doesn’t find much of a wall, and gets a 4.17.

After the air wave, Italo beats Ethan back out for priority, then quickly surfs his best right of the heat for a 7.67.

Ethan tags one to the beach. Italo lands a big roter out the back. The judges now must really decide which nationality of commenter to infuriate.

Ethan gets a 6.50 and takes the lead back for about ten seconds until Italo’s score comes in. It’s a 7.8, and he’s moving on to face Jack Robinson.

Cry is free.

Women’s Match 2: Tatiana Weston Webb vs Brisa Hennessy 

It takes seven and a half minutes for the first wave to be ridden, but Italo seems to have opened Tati’s eyes to the left. Perhaps she’s trying to prevent the judges from tiring of her backhand. It comes in at a 4.67, despite not having any single turn that stuck out.

Brisa — who jumped on a Channel Islands 2.Pro for this event instead of a Pang — responds with a 6.17 for a similar-sized wave with punchier turns. Then Tati returns to the right, bangs six turns, and gets a 7.5.

Brisa gets an inconsequential wave, and we wait through a lull. We hear a train in the background (hot tip: a set comes every time the train rolls by) and see an exchange. Neither wave walls up all the way, but Tati does more with hers and gets a 6.27 while Brisa collects a 5.5.

“Tati is a fighter,” her coach Ross Williams told us earlier this week. “She’s just a pitbull, and that’s what I love about her surfing. Nowadays, some of these younger girls attack too, but Tati has been attacking waves almost arguably more than anyone else, including world champs on tour, and that’s what I love about her surfing. 

Brisa gets a 7 for a potent two-turn combo. Tati attacks one more, but it doesn’t factor in. With priority in the closing minute, her mind probably shifts to how her backhand will look against the defending champ’s in the next heat.

Men’s Match 2: Italo Ferreira vs Jack Robinson 

Our BetOnline.ag sorcerer, Yadin Nicol, predicted that Italo Ferreira has a good chance of rifling through the entire draw if he gets Ethan to tumble. He starts the heat with a 6 for a frontside air reverse. I feel like the judges got it right in Match 1, but also feel like a six is a bit high for an air I saw Jeff Lukasik do 73 times in 2008 alone.

Jack goes 0-for-3 on his first three waves. He’s won 7 CT events but has yet to make a heat at the Finals while they’re at Lowers.

Italo gets a 5.83 for a pair of Jeff Lukasik air reverses on the left. Jack finally links a few eye-pleasing turns for a 4.67. Italo then does three Jeff Lukasiks on the left for a 5.27, which doesn’t factor in.

Paddle battle! We have contact!! Jack bumped Italo as he tried to paddle past him. The Finals would be cooler as a contact sport. If we’re going to do the WWE intros, we may as well lean all the way in. The judges give priority to Italo for Jack’s transgression but don’t throw a triangle at him for it.

Italo uses priority on a right and does three sharp, fluid turns for a 7. More synonyms for energy: Animation, ardour, fire…

Needing an 8.33, Jack goes on a right and does two Lukasiks of his own. Italo swings on the left, opens with a Lukasik, and follows it up with a series of average turns. Italo’s wave doesn’t factor in, and Jack’s hardly changes his requirement.

They split another wave. Jack falls on his first Lukasik. Italo lands his first Lukasik, then tags it to the beach. He gets the highest score of the heat, a 7.57, and it’s goodnight Robbo.

I will stop calling air reverses Lukasiks now.

Women’s Match 3: Tatiana Weston Webb vs Caroline Marks

This is the first goofy-on-goofy violence we’ll witness in the history of the WSL Finals. Despite a favoritism trait found in 90% of this fascinating species, you get the sense that this battle won’t go down on the left.

On the first wave, Caroline looks north but swings south, tricking Tati off the wave in the process. She gets a 6.5 for a series of clean turns. To my eyes, her game looks sharper than Tati’s — but if she wants to repeat, she’s gotta beware of the pitbull approach Ross Williams mentioned above.

Tati locates one of the day’s bigger waves, a left, and does a few carves but suffers a gag reflex towards the end. It’s a 6, and they sit out the back while Caroline has priority.

The lull breaks as they split a peak. Caro does two solid turns while carrying a ton of speed. Tati tags a left a few times. Tati gets the best of this exchange with a 7.83, which feels a bit high for a wave without a turn that really stuck out. Caroline collects a 6.70 for her efforts. Tati takes the lead, but Caroline has priority again and needs a 7.14.

Then Caroline belts a right! Gut reaction: This one is going excellent range if Tati’s last wave was a 7.83. The judges disagree, but the 7.5 they award it is enough for her to take the lead. With three minutes left, they’re both out the back, and Tati has priority. Thus far, both her scores came on lefts she spun on when Caroline went right. With command of the lineup, if a set comes, will she stick to the left or finally go right?

The ocean goes flat. We will never know.

Men’s Match 3: Italo Ferreira vs Griffin Colapinto  

Thus far, Italo has tried 15 air reverses and landed 13. Will the judges tire of this? Or do they, like he, have ENERGY?

Italo pulls inspo from Caroline, and fakes Griffin into believing he’s going right before swinging left. A combination of turns (and, yes, another air reverse) earns him a 5.67. Griffin elects to go left, gets things rolling, then falls on a fin drift and gets a 3.

Then Griffin goes on a smaller right and quite seamlessly links a variety of turns and finners for a 5.17. If he does that on a bigger wave with a bit more space, you might imagine the judges giving him the first 8 we’ve seen since Ethan Ewing’s first wave of the morning (don’t you miss him already?).

Italo goes Baia Formosa on a right, then Griff tags the next one to the beach and they pan to a shot of an ENERGIZED crowd. Griff goes 7.33, Italo goes 7.60.

Italo finds another, but it seems unlikely to factor in after a forced finner. Then both get lefts of no significance. And then we see a split peak. Griff starts strong, but his wave loses ENERGY as it goes on. Italo starts a bit clumsily, but finishes with an air reverse. 5.87 for Griff, 5.9 for Italo. They’re out the back with Griff needing a 6.18 to turn it, but Italo has priority. The commentators (and your group chat) seem to disagree with the scoring.

A set arrives with a minute left. Italo goes on the first one, and splits his time between tearing the fuck out of it and literally looking over his shoulder to see what Griff is doing. We can hear the crowd going mental for Griff as Italo continues to surf his wave. Then we see Griff’s wave — and it’s a beautiful series of turns. Italo gets a 6.7. Griffin’s wave needs to be a 7.15 to turn it. And the score is…

A 7! RIP Griff!!!

See you in the comments.

Mikey C tapping in here — thanks for the morning coverage Buck, and apologies to your baby, whose college tuition has just dissolved with Griff’s title hopes.

Also, for those wondering about my bets, apologies for not updating throughout the day. We’ve been running around Miami all morning in preparation for Stab Highway. It’s hot af over here, but there are fun waves all week, and we can’t wait to kick things off.

For anyone who has Italo and Caity picked as World Title winners (like me), this is where the betting gets fun. We now have the ability to either hedge or double-down — I’m hedging on both, out of logic for the women and desire for the men.

With Caity and Caroline, it’s just a numbers thing. I’ve got $100 on Caity to win $600. If I put $100 on Caroline, I eliminate any theoretical losses while keeping my winnings with Caity at $500.

On the men’s side, it’s more about justice. John deserves this title far more than Italo, despite the Brazilian’s late season charge and surprising ability to sway the judges at Lowers.

Contrary to our audience’s preferences, the men in the tower have made it crystal clear that ENERGY > flow & Lukasics > carves. John is smart enough to pick up on that, as is Ross Williams. If he’s going to beat Italo, he’s gonna need to go through the lip, not swooping around it. I think he’ll make that happen.

Also, Italo’s surfed 24 waves today, most of them with about seven maneuvers — and that’s not even counting the morning warm up. When we were filming for Stab in the Dark, his leg did actually gave out one day, and he had to stop surfing for a few hours. He’s been hammering that thing with the massage gun pre-final, so we’ll see if he can keep them firing.

Either way, $200 on John.

Women’s Final Match 1: Caroline Marks vs Caity Simmers

The defending world champ and Olympic gold medalist vs. the lot queen of Oceanside — on paper it seems like Caroline should have the edge, but their jersey colors say otherwise. Let’s see what Lowers has to say.

First exchange, Caroline big dawgs Caity off the peak, surfs to a relatively safe 7.5.

Caity’s on the next, flowing and slicing in perfect balance, with one turn that seared the lip in two — a well-deserved 8.5, and the heat is on.

The heat dawdles on for a while with no scores of note — some safety waves by Caity and uncharacteristic falls and poor set selection by Caroline.

The Floridian finally locks into a longer wall with a few minutes on the clock, locking in a mid-seven and the heat lead. Caity needs a a mid-six to take it back, and a set approaches.

Holding priority, Caity rushes over to the glistening corner — thoughts of Slater’s barrel that one year cross my mind. Caity has different plans though, doing a Steph down-carve to set up the steepest section of the wave. Smash the lip said everyone’s internal dialogue, but Caity took a slightly more conservative approach, leaning into a stylish lean-back carve, a half-turn, and a clean finish. She then let out an exasperated claim: are you not entertained?!

The judges were indeed entertained, giving Caity the score and then some with a mid-eight. As the horn sounded to finalize her H1 victory, the camera quickly panned to Caroline Marks, who was bottom turning into the juiciest section of the day, before blasting the lip once, twice, probably eight times by the end, before unwittingly delivering the same exact claim.

Watching the waves back-to-back on replay, the judges had no choice — Caroline’s wave was clearly a point better, for the mere fact that Caity turned around the lip and Caroline went through it. Caity could have surfed her wave harder, but only needing a high-six (at the time), it would have been silly to do so.

Each surfer did exactly what they needed in the moment, but only one can win the heat. Caroline goes up 1-0 in the best-of-three final.

Prediction watch: on this week’s ep of The Drop, Stace G said Caity would lose H1 then go on to win the title. Watch this space.

Men’s Final Match 1: Italo Ferreira vs. John Florence

Speaking of predictions, Yadin Nicol called Italo and Caroline winning the title this year. Just gonna leave that here.

The men’s final starts with a lot of waiting — 10 minutes to be precise, which is typically enough for a restart. But with a set looming out the back, the head judge holds his nerve and Italo pounces.

While the wave is inconsequential on the scoreline, it sets the pace for the rest of the heat, which is now condensed to a mere 25 minutes…at lully Lowers.

As he does, Italo makes use of his second priority by taking off on a closeout and hucking one off-axis to the flats. Losing his footing in mid-air, Italo falls to back in recovery mode. While not fully visible on-screen, it appears that the Brazilian uses his back hand on his tail pad to help himself regain balance and ride away from the whitewash — typically a move that will cut a score in half.

If that’s the case, Italo’s air would have been a 14.66 if he’d landed it cleanly, considering the 7.33 delivered by the judges.

John finally takes off on a wave halfway through the heat — using the strategy referenced above, he goes straight through the lip with an air reverse, into several sky-dampening snaps on an impressively small wave.

John surfed the ever-loving shit out of that wave, but it’s hard to ignore his lack of pace relative to Italo. It brings to mind one of those cartoons where a giant is trying smash a tiny human to pieces, but their fist keeps arriving too late — debris flies everywhere, but the human escapes unharmed, stabbing the giant in the ribs before he’s able to react.

On cue, Italo stomps another monster rev (number 17 of the day) to the flats, this one cleaner than a monk’s conscience. Compared the first, the instinct is that this one is at least three points better. Perhaps as a correction to their first score, the judges give it a mere 8.0 — we’ll be looking to chat with the judges post-WSL Finals to get clarity on everything that’s gone down today.

Needing an 8.16 to win, John sits calmly out the back, waiting for his second wave of the day. The feeling is generally glum — it seems the ocean will simply not provide the type of canvass John requires for excellence.

Then, a shimmering peak appears. Being the first wave of the set, it doesn’t look to have much water in it, but with two minutes left it will have to do.

Once again, John bottom-turns straight into an air reverse — this one more inverted, but notably less clean than the first. He backs it up with two turns straight through the lip, which sacrifice crispness for raw power. The wave finishes

To the untrained eye, John’s board appears to be sinking through the majority of his turns. Considering the judging of the day, it doesn’t feel like the best wave of the hear, nor the required score.

Naturally, we’re wrong again. The judges give John an 8.33, he raises his hands in equal parts surprise and joy, and surfing goes up 1-0 in the men’s final.

Women’s Final Match 2: Caroline Marks (1) vs. Caity Simmers (0)

Caity’s world title hopes live an die on this heat. At just 18 years old, that’s a lot of weight to bear.

Heat two starts the same as the first, with Caroline getting first pick of the set. She surfs her wave smartly but never really connects, leaving the most dangerous surfer on earth, on a perfect peak, all by herself. Big mistake.

Caity takes the next wave and makes a clear correction from heat one, going straight into the lip on her first turn, immediately grabbing the judges’ attention. She follows it up with a clean swoop then cruises well beyond the confines of the pocket, setting up what many scholars believe to be surfing’s most intimate maneuver — a seamless roundhouse cutback.

I have no idea what she did on the rest of the wave, as I fully blacked out when she crack the whitewater, revealing more than a sliver of fin. Whatever she did, the judges enjoyed it — a 9.17 was dropped into Caity’s scoreline.

Nailing a 9 of her own in the previous match, Caroline was far from out of this heat — especially as she dropped an 8 on her next ride. Unfortunately for the Floridian, she wasn’t able to bask in the glory of her excellence for long, as Caity was on the very next wave, going twice as fast, turning three times as hard, with four times the variety and five times the lactic acid.

Unlike Caroline, Caity isn’t big on the training regime, and it shows toward the back end of her waves. With two nines on the board, Caity lets her quads rest for the remaining 20 minutes of the heat and wins via combo.

Only two more waves and she could be world champ.

Men’s Final Match 2: Italo Ferrera (0) vs. John Florence (1)

With a heat one victory, John Florence is just 35 minutes from his third world title. While that would clearly be the correct result, it almost feels surprising given the circumstances. But anything is possible on WSL Finals day.

Once again Italo takes the first wave — this time he capitalizes with an 8.17 for some familiar surfing.

After a lengthy wait, John takes off on a long, lumpy wall — at first glance, not the type of wave you want at Lowers. That assumption is swiftly kicked in the teeth as John jumps a Maragret River-esque drop wallet on a wave one-quarter the size with one-tenth the power. Just as he did in WA, John rides out from surfing’s most difficult face maneuver as if he’d just check-turned off the top, and finished the wave for a 9.7 — at least 8.5 points of which came from the initial salvo.

Frankly, it has to be one of the best turns ever done at Lowers — similar to this one by Leo Fioravanti, but with more power and control.

John’s now one wave away from his third world title.

Not much happens through the middle of the heat, until John gets back to his feet. This time, it’s back the basics — carve, air reverse, wait for it to reform and finish dat faka. By John’s reaction in the six-inch whitewater that remains, you get the sense that he believes he’s sealed his fate.

The judges tend to agree, dropping an 8.43 and leaving Italo just short of combo.

Italo fires back with a silky mid-face air rev on a left, followed by innumerable forehand power squats. The judges give it another low-8 — excellent on paper, but useless in practice.

The clock shrinks and the ocean flattens. John blocks Italo with 18 seconds on the clock, and Lizzo croons. John Florence joins Mark Richards, Tom Curren, Mick Fanning, and Gabriel Medina as a 3x world champion — talk about elite company.

Perhaps most importantly, the best surfer in the world is the world champion for the first time since 2017.

Women’s Final Match 3: Caroline Marks (1) vs. Caity Simmers (1)

History righted itself once today. Can justice strike twice?

In a change of pattern, Caity takes the first wave of their third match, which proves difficult to ride. As proven by earlier heats, Caity much prefers the second, third, or even fourth wave of a set, which has a cleaner face and steeper wall. The combination of wind chop and depth made this particular wall difficult to climb, but Caity still manages a 6.33 despite never finding her rhythm.

A few minutes later it’s Caroline’s turn — she turns a 7-point wave into a 7-point ride with 7-point surfing, never going above or below expectations. This measured approach won her a lot of heats this year, but it might not be enough for a title.

Caity is on the very next wave — second of the set, her favorite — filleting the lip with Chris Borst precision. The amount of different angles Caity achieves on a single ride is often overlooked by judges, but this time they awarded her an 8.83.

Caroline gets priority, needing an 8 to defend her title.

The clock winds down. 10 minutes, 8, 6, 4.

Caity Simmers isthe youngest world champion in surfing history. The first (and not the last) Ladybird world champ. And Stace G called it.

Gamble Ramble

Mikey C has the lowest 2024 earnings of any surfer on the CT, but we still consider him a champion.

Preseason bets: 

$100 on JJF to make top 5 at -105 to win $95 WON
$100 on Ethan Ewing to make top 5 at -125 to win $80 WON
$625 on Gabriel Medina to make top 5 at -250 to win $250 LOST
$100 on Griffin Colapinto to make top 5 at -105 to win $95 WON
$250 on Molly Picklum to make top 5 at -135 to win $185 WON
$100 on Caroline Marks to make top 5 at -135 to win $74 WON
$250 on Caity Simmers to make top 5 at -135 to win $185 WON
$100 on Crosby Colapinto to win ROTY at +450 to win $450 WON
$100 on Jacob Willcox to win ROTY at +350 to win $350 LOST
$100 on Molly Picklum to win WT at +700 to win $700 LOST
$100 on Caity Simmers to win WT at +600 to win $600 WON
$500 on Filipe Toledo to win WT at +500 to win $2,500 LOST
$200 on EE to win WT at +600 to win $1200 LOST
$375 on Seth Moniz to make cut at -150 to win $250 WON
$50 on Yago Dora to win the world title at +1600 to win $800 LOST

Preseason total: $439

WSL Finals

Winners

$100 on Ethan Ewing at +1200 to win $1200 LOST
$50 on Italo Ferreira at +900 to win $450 LOST
$50 on Tati WW at +1000 to win $500 LOST

Round 1
$100 on Ethan Ewing at +100 to win $100 LOST
$100 on Tati WW at -130 to win $76 WON

Round 2
$50 on Brisa Hennessy at + 125 to win $63 LOST

Round 3
$100 onCaroline at -150 to win $67 WON
$100 on Italo at -105 to win $96 WON

Women’s final
$100 on Caroline at -105 to win $95 LOST

Men’s final
$200 on JJF at -115 to win $175 WON

WSL Finals earnings: -$36

2024 season earnings:
Pipe: $2,458
Sunset: $1,022
Portugal: $500
Bells: $0
Margs: $901
Teahupo’o: -$639
El Sal: $801
Brazil: -$213
Olympics: $433
Cloudbreak: $95
Lowers: $433

2024 Season Total: $5,696