Modern Surf Forecasting Is A Double-Edged Sword

You’ve been watching a purple blob for 2 weeks on your premium surf forecast account. A 10/10 daily rating reaffirms that everything is aligned. 

After months of 50+ hour work weeks and average weekend surf, a much-needed leave day has been scheduled and you beeline it for the best spot in your region — only to find fun waves with a startlingly large pack of surfers on it. A few of them may have even received an email alert that suggested they be there. 

If you surf, you can almost certainly relate to this scenario. Virtually everyone consults surf forecasts these days. Some people check seven different sites and deep-dive into buoy data. Others simply open an app and glance at the forecasted wave height and numerical rating, star-system, or color code assigned to the conditions. Very few of us just wing it. 

As a surfer, surf media insider, and now editor at Surfline Australia, Nick Carroll has observed the changing landscape for 50+ years. I asked Nick about his take on life pre-forecasting. With a chuckle, he recounted trying to pair back the ABC news synoptic charts each evening with the conditions of that day. Lows meant swell, wind wasn’t factored in. During a three year period in the 1980s he even kept a scrapbook with newspaper charts cut-out and a journal entry for each day, eventually spotting patterns and trends as they developed.

Through that same ‘80s era, Surfline’s founder Sean Collins was providing surf reports and basic forecasting via a phone service that eventually found its way online in 1999, right in the midst of the dot com boom. NC was quick to tell me about Sean’s skills interpreting and translating weather charts — the man was a guru, and a trailblazer. 

Surfline has since become the biggest surf forecasting website in the world, acquiring the popular Europe-based site MagicSeaWeed in 2017 and Aussie Coastalwatch in 2021. Beyond the big dogs, there are a plethora of sites that specialize in different regions around the world. As the outlets continue to evolve and add more layers to their offerings, the general consensus is that forecasts are only getting more and more accurate. This has changed the way we experience surfing — mostly for the good, but sometimes for the bad. 

Without a doubt, modern surf forecasting affects the crowds we see on a day-to-day basis. In general, lineups are more crowded than they’ve ever been. This is not a consequence of surf forecasting — nobody decides to learn how to surf after being introduced to a forecasting outlet. But, we do see a good forecast’s impact on specific days. More people show up to surf when good conditions have been predicted, but even this is not unique to our sport. The local golf course packs out on a sunny Saturday too, as do wineries and cafes. It’s merely a result of improved access to information. 

So, have you learnt to adapt? When you know that a good forecast means more people, you can use that information to your advantage. Maybe the weird reform or onshore reef becomes your preferred option when everything looks to align for a more popular wave. 

You can also lean on modern surf forecasting to put you onto uncommon, and often uncrowded waves in more secluded zones. Not only do we have access to detailed information about upcoming swell events, forecasts also give us ample time to make the call and rearrange our lives to get to wherever it is we’re eyeing up. 

Many surfers believe that forecasting sites overhype swells — or show ghost swells on long-range forecasts — to drive traffic and keep surfers coming back. When I prodded Nick on that, he was quick to tell me that I was incorrect. “Forecast traffic is consistent from day to day. We guarantee this with focus on the forecast, the event and showcasing swell stories thereafter.” 

Still, there’s nothing like the classic letdown and surf forecasts are even changing the way we experience that. Confidence in predicted conditions is at an all-time high. In the past, you might have shown up the morning of a hyped swell hoping it would be on. Now, more people show up believing it will be on. As a result, an overblown forecast stings more than ever. 

There’s a flip side to that coin, though. 

The magic of an unpredicted window of good waves feels even greater now. A subtle wind change, the early pulse in swell, or a direction shift that isn’t met with an army of hungry swell chasers is increasingly rare, but it happens. 

The advances in surf forecasting are truly a double-edged sword. We all benefit from parts of it and suffer from others. As we continue to evolve, where will we land in, say, 20 years’ time? Sitting in the line-up listening to our friends call their friends on smart watches, sharing live updates of the surf and watching self-driving automobiles pour into the carpark? 

Whether or not surf forecasting sites have an ethical obligation to keep parts of surfing sacred could be a whole different piece. But, the reality is that forecasting has advanced far enough to have legitimately changed the everyday surfing experience. Instead of reading weather charts and guessing what they’ll do to the waves, you now need to interpret what a good surf forecast will do to the decision making of the surfers in your area. 

With all the extra heads in the water, the question must be asked internally: what am I chasing in my surf lifestyle? Two waves (and a couple of hours of stress) at the prime spot, or 15 set waves at the third-tier option with just a couple of mates?

Never before have we had so much information to help us do either of those things.