Who’s Going To Win Newcastle? - Stab Mag
Nimble, quick but also thrives in waves that summon existential fear in most. There's a reason why our staff gravitated towards Jack Robinson. Photo: WSL/Cestari

Who’s Going To Win Newcastle?

Choose wisely and win a free Pyzel surfboard.

Words by Stab

There’s nothing like new board day.

The inescapable anxiety of traction pad application. That kind of awkward, but also strangely satisfying first wax job. The giddiness of getting your first wave on it, hoping that it will understand what, specifically, your body is trying to tell it to do. 

If you’re here, it’s fair to assume you’re fond of all this. Which is why we want to give (one of) you a free Pyzel

All you have to do is tell us who’s going to win the first CT event of 2021, the Rip Curl Newcastle Cup. Note that our comments are open to Premium members only. You gotta pay to play, and you gotta play to win.

To give you some inspiration, intel, or neither, we asked a few people who obsess over surfing: The Stab Staff. Our answers are below. 

Put yours in the comments for a chance to win. In the likely event that more than one person picks the same surfer, the best answer will be chosen as the winner. So, if you’re going with one of the usual suspects, you ought to add some spice to your comment.

Also note that only comments before Friday, April 2nd will qualify to win. Word is that the comp will start on Thursday, April 1 if you want to try before you buy.

Good luck. And, lastly, here’s a warm up clip from last week if you care to do extra research.  

Name: Michael Ciaramella
Age: 27, with crows’ feet like a geriatric mole rat
Job: Roasting people on Instagram
Who: Filipe Toledo
Why: Filipe Toledo is wildly undervalued stock. Maybe it’s because of covid, maybe it’s because he’s been quiet on socials, maybe it’s because Pipe was the first event of the year rather than Snapper. But let me remind you: this guy is still the best average-beach-break surfer in the world. And with the new tour schedule and format, he’s in a better position than ever to win a World Title. It all starts in Newcastle. 

Name: Zack Raffin
Age: 23
Job: Watching surf vlogs so you don’t have to
Who: Ryan Callinan
Why: I’ve never been to Australia, let alone Newcastle, but from the clips I’ve seen it appears to be a bit mushy… meaning sections for one-score maneuvers like that in Brazil/France/Portugal will likely not be as prevalent. Given that this is still a beachbreak, hi-fi surfing will likely win. I’m picking Ryan Callinan because he doesn’t need big sections to produce big scores on small waves, he has the best-looking tail throw maneuvers on tour, is a Newcastle local and, lastly, completed quarantine roughly 2 months before the tour’s arrival. No need to warm up when the fire’s already blazing.

Name: Jack Mutschler
Age: 22
Job: Mikey C’s little helper
Who: Crosby Colapinto
Why: Kid is an absolute monster. If a minotaur saw the Crozz walking towards him on a sidewalk it would cross the street just to avoid any confrontation. When he wins I’m taking my prize money (someone in the Oz office throw down $100 for me pls) and buying Griffin’s WSL jersey, then scribbling a big ol “The Crozz” on it.

Note: Seriously, if someone in the Oz office could throw a $100 US on Crosby winning it all for me, that would be great.

Name: Will Stiles
Age: 27
Job: Video
Who: Jack Robinson
Why: He was surfing really well during his time in Hawaii. Newcastle could be on the smaller/medium size (from how far I can scroll on Surfline), but maybe it’ll pick up at the end of the waiting period. I’m nearly-almost-positive, if it gets big, Jack’s going to win it… probably. What do I get if I/Jack wins?

[Ed’s note: A complimentary tattoo.] 

Name: Shinya Dalby
Age: 20-60
Job: Art Direction
Who: Connor O’Leary 
Why: Overlapping heritage. But also, I’m serious. This will depend on Merewether point kinda doing its thing to weaponize that raw backside wind-up thing he’s got going on, which I’ve seen over and over in real life out at Lennox Point (and you have too, on the internet). He might also need to unlock a strategy to be on the best waves, but if he finds them, he won’t let you down.

Name: Brendan Buckley
Age: 31
Who: John John Florence
Why: Because he’s the best surfer in the world. Because he didn’t post any shirtless workout videos during quarantine. Because he won three out of the last five events he’s completed in (barring injuries). But mostly because it’ll be funny when we’re all wrong and Wade Carmichael wins.

The judges don’t dislike this. Ryan Callinan. Photo: Bosko

Name: Dylan Roberts
Age: 28
Job: The films
Who: Ryan Callinan
Why: Because his surfing is amazingly well rounded from airs to turns to cones, all of which may be needed for this event. And he’s the hometown hero. My god it would be all time if he could go all the way.

Name: Mikey Mallalieu
Age: 28
Job: The other new guy
Who: Yago Dora 
Why: His latest clip has everything. His combos are something else, and are all done with style and grace. And the airs are mind-blowing. He looks real comfortable and confident—with a knack for pulling crazy moves in subpar waves he will be a threat in any condition Newcastle throws out. Go Yago!!! 

Shooters shoot. Jack Robinson and a portait of optimism. Photo: WSL/Cestari

Name: Ashton Goggans
Age: 36
Job: Stab US’s Recently Returned Absentee Father
Who: Jack Robinson
Why: You can ask me this question anywhere on tour and I’ll repeat the same answer. Kid’s got Bruce’s style and tuberiding, with a flicky Taj-esque small wave game that will give him in-the-clutch confidence. He also just spent three months paddling against the gnarliest currents at Haleiwa and Sunset, and surfed shitty Sandbar and Ehukai more than any other visitor on the North Shore all winter.


Comments are a Stab Premium feature. Gotta join to talk shop.

Already a member? Sign In

Want to join? Sign Up


Most Recent

Board Changes, Party Boys, Olympic Clues, Mega Production Crews, And More

Notes from behind the scenes on the Championship Tour.

Apr 16, 2021

Joyride Board Test: The ACSOD Monster

What a difference a set of fins can make.

Apr 16, 2021

Ch.11 TV Disciple Josiah Amico Stars In ‘Not An Athlete’

His words, not ours.

Apr 15, 2021

How A Quik Employee Was Almost Fired For Overpaying To Get Kelly Slater On The Team

Securing arguably the greatest team in the history of surfing.

Apr 15, 2021

The Consequences of Pipeline With Mikey O’Shaughnessy

Take it from a guy who cracked his helmet on the reef.

Apr 15, 2021

11-Year-Old Performs Stab High-Worthy Airs in Waco

That mute?!

Apr 15, 2021

Some Practical Advice On Training For Surfing

Yeah, you probably don't need to do squats on a Swiss ball.

Apr 14, 2021

Watch: The World Premiere of ‘That’s Caroline’

A documentary on the abrupt rise of Caroline Marks.

Apr 14, 2021

Action Bronson Is An Animal On The Boog

Watch what many are calling the best olive oil and bodyboarding video ever made.

Apr 14, 2021

Watch: The Hypnotic Movement Of Mikey February in ‘Sonic Souvenirs’

Get lost in episode one.

Apr 14, 2021

Who Do You Think Won Stab In The Dark With Taj Burrow?

A question for those spray painting profanity on our paywall.

Apr 13, 2021

Mind Map, Kai Lenny: “Jaws Has The Biggest Ramps You Could Ever Want”

This man thinks on an entirely different level.

Apr 13, 2021

Latin Americans Have an Undeniable Affinity for the Tube

Directional ambidexterity can be quite fun.

Apr 13, 2021

Did We Just See The Best Performance Since John John At Margaret River In 2017?

What the data says about Newcastle.

Apr 12, 2021

Stab Podcast: Will Italo’s Airs Be Relevant in 10 Years?

Let's discuss, on Stab CUSP.

Apr 12, 2021

Micky Clarke Moves With Disciplined Aggression

Emo Micky finds an outlet on CH 11 TV.

Apr 11, 2021

Click or Miss: Is Vlogging Harder Than It Looks?

Click or Miss Vol 23.

Apr 11, 2021

The End Of The Dark Ages On Reunion Island

After fifteen years of chaos, shark attacks, and surf bans, a recently-launched project looks to…

Apr 11, 2021