The World Title race, according to a tour expert

Interview by Jed Smith

Former Pipe Master and unofficial Stab world tour pundit, Jake ‘The Snake’ Paterson gives up his pearls.

On the title race: All I can say is, how bloody exciting! We could have six guys, all with a chance of winning the title, going into Pipe. That’s what everyone wants to see.

On the judging in Portugal: If I was Mick I would be a little confused about that heat he lost (round three against wildcard, Frederico Morais). The scores in Portugal in general were a little weird, if you ask me. Josh Kerr vs the Spartan in round three: Kerr two airs for a 5.17, the Spartan did two floaters for a 5.5 and Kerr losers by less than half a point! Risk vs reward has gone out the window, it seems.

On Mick in Europe: Mick has it all. You could see he was asking the judges: What more do you want?

Filipe Toledo, with a win in Portugal, put himself right back up front of the conversation. While he might not be known for his surfing at Pipeline, he’s still a huge threat for Mick.WSL/Poullenot/Aquashot

On Filipe: Holy Toledo! I said that if the conditions were right, he was going to be super dangerous. Can you imagine if he didn’t lose first round in France? He only needed a 0.2-something, mind you. Anyway, that’s all history now. It’s crazy to think he is really the frontrunner going into to Pipe – dropping the lowest score – so all he has to do is to finish the same as Mick to win. He finished fifth at Pipe last year, so he has cut his teeth. Wildcards will be his problem going into Pipe, unless it’s small Pipe.

On Gabriel: It looks like he’s found some magic boards, which breeds confidence. He looks unstoppable at the moment. What he did at the end of his round three heat was unbelievable. The kind of stuff champions are made of.

Gabriel Medina is right there, waiting for Mick, Filipe and Adriano to slip.WSL/Poullenot/Aquashot

On Gabriel’s return to form: It’s the same Gab, just way more relaxed and full of confidence. He looked a little tight at the start of the year, which is no surprise after doing what he did the year before.

On Adriano: You can just never count him out. Give him an inch, he will take a mile.

Laird bless this man and his tenacity! Also: Adriano will charge when necessary. Photo: WSL/Poullenot/Aquashot

On who has the momentum heading into Pipe: Pipe is a good month away, so no one is going to carry any momentum from the Europe leg. It’s just going to be a good old fashion gunfight. Can’t wait.

On the pressure Mick’s now under: He will be loving it! Nothing changes for him. It’s just game on.

If Mick gets a 13th at Pipe, Filipe gets worse than 13th, Gabriel gets worse than third, and Adriano gets less than a ninth… then Jules just needs to win the event. Not a big ask at all, huh? Photo: WSL/Poullenot/Aquashot

On who deals with pressure the best: Mick, 100 percent. He doesn’t care who he surfs against. He’s just out there doing his thing.

On who has the upper hand at Pipe: The heat draw will play the biggest part in the world title race. John John, Kelly – those guys are down the ratings and will draw World Title contenders kinda early. I really can’t wait to see it all unfold.

Mr Perfect 20’s mathematical chances are as good as Julian’s, but… you never know. Photo: WSL/Poullenot/Aquashot

And just in case you’ve forgotten… here’s the official World Title scenarios rolling into the North Shore:

If Mick Fanning finishes 25th/13th at Pipe
– Owen Wright and Julian Wilson will need a 1st
– Gabriel Medina will need a 3rd or better
– Adriano de Souza will need a 9th or better
– Filipe Toledo will need a 13th or better to clinch the World Title

If Mick Fanning finishes 9th
– Gabriel Medina will need a 1st
– Adriano de Souza will need a 5th
– Filipe Toledo will need a 9th

If Mick Fanning finishes 5th
– Gabriel Medina will need a 1st
– Adriano de Souza will need a 3rd
– Filipe Toledo will need a 5th

If Mick Fanning finishes 3rd
– Adriano will need a 2nd
– Filipe will need a 3rd

If Mick finishes 2nd
– Adriano will need a 1st
– Filipe will need a 1st

And if Mick Fanning wins the event he will clinch the World Title.