Riot In Rio?

Intro by Brazil enthusiast Ryan Miller.

Rio may very well be one of the best cities in the world to visit as an adult. 

The food, beach culture, cocktails, dancing and tourist attractions are all about as good as it gets. Plus, the white sand beaches are littered with hot men and women, as well as cold coconuts and acai bowls. Take your pick or indulge in all four if you so choose. While the city of Rio leaves nothing to be desired, the waves were never quite up to par, which is why the WSL moved the Brazilian CT event three hours north to Saquarema. 

While the wave quality has improved dramatically, all the joys of Rio have dissipated. Saquarema has a real mellow, small-town vibe. You’re walking to the beach instead of trying to fit your boards into an Uber. Say goodbye to your Michelin-star-rated churrascaria restaurant and say hello to cooking pasta in your Airbnb. And you definitely won’t be out dancing till sunrise here. 

The main beach is a mile-long strip of blonde Brazilian sand butted up to emerald green water — even the staunchest Instagram critic would post photos of it to their story. The wave itself is a mixed bag of just about anything that would tickle your fancy at a beach break. 

The comp site is usually at the northern end of the beach. It’s predominantly a left when there is some swell on it. When the swell is small-to-medium, there’s a punchy right ramp off the split peak — look for some hail mary heroics on it when surfers need a big score. The wildcard here is the backwash, which lights people up while they’re trying to finish their waves. 

The middle stretch of the beach has plenty of banks where you can surf alone. If you’re lucky, you’ll spot Gabby warming up there. The southern end of the stretch has that right sandbank off the rocks where Filipe decapitated everyone the last time this event ran. When it’s on, it’s a heaving barrel straight into a monster air section. It can easily be one of the most exciting waves on tour. 

Meanwhile, the local crowd in Brazil is as good as it gets. These fans make me embarrassed to be an American. When the comp is on it is shoulder to shoulder all the way from the dunes to the water’s edge. They really get into it, too — the energy is electric on the beach.

On the down days in Saquarema, you only need three items: a sunga, a soccer ball, and a bottle of tanning oil. Get down there on the sand and have one hell of a beach day. There’s nothing else to do so there are no hard decisions to make. After you’re done embarrassing yourself at soccer, head up to one of the beach bars for a few caipirinhas to reset your self-esteem. 

The nightlife is nearly non-existent in Saquarema. If you want to blow off some steam, I recommend saving a few days on the back end of your trip to roam through Rio. Check into a hotel with a rooftop pool overlooking the beaches of Copacabana and you are living. Maybe if you name-drop Gabby or Filipe loud enough one of the beautiful humans poolside will speak to you. 

Speaking of Filipe, just go ahead and give him the trophy right now. This guy just doesn’t lose in Brazil. Everyone else is just battling for second. 

Forecast

NGL, we’ve had a bit of a shocker since the mid-year cut. Some might call it a mid-year curse. G-Land sucked. El Salvador sucked. Will Brazil finally send us some decent waves?

Having never been to Saquarema, my read of the forecast is as useful as a bar of tropical wax on a chilly winter morning. But I did chat with Stacey G, who has been there, to give us a more knowledgeable assessment. 

“The left [main comp peak] likes easterly swell. If it’s south, it’s just a wobbly closeout. The right [back-up comp peak] loves south swell but it needs to be at least two meters. The current forecast looks like it might be just too small for the right to turn on, which could mean backwashy, walled lefts is the way forward. Hopefully it comes good, but it’s hard to say.”

The curse lingers… 

Storylines 

Riot in Rio?

What better way to prep for the U.S. Open than a little warm-up riot in Rio? It could happen. 

The Brazil event tends to draw some of the biggest crowds on the CT, even in Rio’s sleepy suburb of Saquarema. And based on recent events, rightly or wrongly, many of the nation’s superfans are enraged. 

This all started back in G-Land, when eventual winner Jack Robinson defeated Gabriel Medina and Filipe Toledo with consecutive (and somewhat questionable) buzzer-beaters in the semis and final. 

Adding fuel to the fire was Filipe’s reaction to the scores in his quarterfinal against Griffin Colapinto, which resulted in a verbal tirade that could be felt, if not heard, from the judges’ tower some 500 meters from the lineup, plus some more choice words in his post-heat interview.   

A sense of nationality-based injustice was felt amongst many in the Brazilian camp. 

Then we headed to El Salvador, where the same thing more or less happened all over again. This time it was Griffin Colapinto who defeated Gabriel Medina and Filipe in similarly close semis and finals, much to the chagrin of the acai nation. 

If any of these heats happened in isolation, it wouldn’t have been a big deal. But four close calls in a row going in the American/Aussies’ favor — well, you can understand how that looks to a nation who, until the past decade, had always felt hard done by the surfing powers that be. 

While the Toledo team remains self-righteously indignant, Yago Dora and Jadson Andre have come forward to support Griffin and condemn the most vitriolic of their countrymen. 

“You Brazilians who come here on Griffin’s page to talk nonsense, you don’t represent me!” said Jaddy.

“The guy is just doing his job, whether the result was fair or not is not the athlete’s fault!” reiterated Yago. 

Still, a fire burns in the belly of Brazil. One has to think that if a similar instance of perceived injustice were to occur in Saquarema, we could see a literal uprising of the tens of thousands in attendance.

The scariest part is, police couldn’t do a damn thing to hold them back, on account of all the tanning oil. 

What’s an Italo gotta do to get a win around here?

Italo Ferreira hasn’t made a CT final in 14 months (Newcastle, 2021). Since his World title in 2019, he’s only had six excellent heats (compared to eight for Gabe, who’s surfed in five fewer events). And if you’ve been watching the events this year, you can probably tell that something is not quite clicking. 

Nothing appears to have changed in Italo’s approach, so either the other surfers on tour have gotten better, or we’ve become collectively desensitized to his air-heavy, staccato-style surfing. To that point, the judges appear to be favoring those with more flow this season, evidenced by the success of Ethan Ewing and Griffin Colapinto. 

Whatever the reason, the judges have not been rewarding Italo the same way they did a few years back. So if he’s going for another World Title, he either needs to go that much bigger or change his approach altogether.

I’m feeling that Brazil could be his breakthrough event. 

Carissa pulling a Parko?

There have been seven winners in seven events on the Women’s CT this year. None of them belong to current world number one Carissa Moore. This is the longest Carissa has gone without a win since 2018, when she didn’t catch a dub until the eighth event of the year. 

You may remember in 2012 when Joel Parkinson became the first surfer since CJ Hobgood (2001) to win a World Title without winning a CT event*. With only three events remaining this year, one might be wondering if Carissa Moore is heading down a similar path. The short answer is maybe. The long answer is technically no, because in order to win a title this year, Carissa has to win at least one event.

And yes, she’s the defending Lowers Champ. 

Mid-year curse?

Did the mid-year cut curse the CT? Sounds ridiculous, but so does the name Harry Sack, and he was an actual competitive surfer once. Let’s dissect the evidence (of the curse, not the fuzzy nads). 

Since the mid-year cut…

• The waves have been terrible. 
• John Florence hurt his knee. 
• Surfers are pulling out of events all over the joint.

The first point you could chalk up to bad luck. The second you could chalk up to the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. The third you could chalk up to Kelly being Kelly and Tyler Wright being uncommonly affected by illness and/or visa issues. But altogether, it’s not looking great for the mid-year cut. 

To expand on the point of surfers pulling out of events, it’s worth noting how irrelevant these last five events are for surfers who don’t see themselves entering the top-5 picture. Sure, there’s some money and prestige on the line, but with no do-or-die scenario keeping the battlers up at night, we’re unlikely to see another Matt McGillivray hanging-in-the-lip moment until next season.

On the flip side, surfers already at the top of the standings have little incentive to dominate the tour. Even if Filipe Toledo were to win the three remaining events this year, he’d be no closer to a World Title than he is today. 

As with anything in life, the mid-year cut comes with significant pros and cons. So far, we’ve mostly seen the negatives. Let’s hope that changes soon. 

Brazil CT Stats

A little something for the surf nerds. 

Men

• Filipe is the 2x defending champ in Saq town, with 3 total wins in Brazil — the most of any surfer in the draw this week. 
• Gabriel Medina has never won a CT event in his home nation. 
• Italo Ferreira has only made the semis once in Brazil. 
• To that point, it’s been 12 years since a male goofy won in brazil (Jadson, 2010). 
• Kanoa Igarashi’s best result here is a quarter, surprisingly. 
• Jack Robinson has never surfed a CT in Brazil (but did recently post a Portuguese caption on his IG, which has to count for something).

Women

• Sally Fitz is defending female champ 2019 and has won in Brazil 3x overall (most of any woman currently on tour).
• Carissa Moore hasn’t won in Brazil in over 10 years.
• Steph Gilmore has only won once in 9 tries. 
• The sole Brazilian woman on tour, Tatiana Weston-Webb, doesn’t have a great track record here either — one semi in 6 events.

Gamble Ramble

Five events, five positive outcomes on Betonline.ag in 2022. Not bad for a novice surf bettor. 

Statistics say we’re bound to lose at some point. I have a sneaking suspicion it will happen in Brazil. This event always seems so random to me — I fear that even the most “reliable” picks will fall prey to overstimulation by backwash and beach bods. Perhaps even our beloved Baker Train will be derailed.

Alas, we toss a few shekels into the wind. 

Event winner picks
– $20 on Kanoa Igarashi at +1400 to win $280
– $30 on Italo Ferreira at +700 to win $210
– $10 on Yago Dora at +4000 to win $400
– $15 on Sally Fitz at +1600 to win $240
– $15 on Johanne Defay at +1400 to win $210
– $20 on Caroline Marks at +900 to win $180

R1 picks

Coming soon…

Here’s a look at how we’ve done thus far in 2022: 

– Pipe earnings: +$465
– Bells earnings: +$337
– Margaret River earnings: +$136
– G-Land earnings: +$101
– El Salvador earnings: +$170
– 2022 Season earnings:  $1,209

Place your bets here.

 *Parko technically won the Pipe Masters this year, but not until after he’d already secured the World Title.