Can Gabby Win A World Title Only Surfing Half The Season? - Stab Mag

Live Now — Episode 3 Of Surf100 Challenge Series Presented By Pacifico

271 Views
I wouldn't bet the house on it. Photo by WSL

Can Gabby Win A World Title Only Surfing Half The Season?

We crunched the numbers.

features // Apr 24, 2022
Words by Ethan Davis
Reading Time: 3 minutes

There’s 10 events this CT season plus Final’s day. 

Anyone who finishes those ten events with a rank of #5 or higher will be invited to the ‘Superbowl’ playoffs at Lowers where anyone in the draw has a shot of taking home the title. On Monday, the WSL announced today that 3x World Champ Gabriel Medina will be granted a 2022 season wildcard for the second half of the men’s Championship Tour starting at the Quiksilver Pro G-Land. 

“Gabriel is officially the men’s WSL Season wildcard for all competitions following the Mid-season Cut and with this wildcard, Gabriel will be eligible to qualify for the WSL Final 5,” announced Renato Hickel, WSL Director of Tours and Competition. So the short answer to the question of can Gabby win a World Title this year is ‘Yes’. 

But here’s why it is incredibly unlikely. 

Possible, but highly unlikely. Photo by Jimmy Wilson

Last season the WSL only ran seven CT events, with a surfer’s top five results counting. This season, CT competitors will be ranked on their best four-out-of-five results before the mid-season cut, allowing them to drop one result before CT stop number six. The advancing surfers will be ranked on their best nine-out-of-10 results from the season (with all events after the mid-season cut counting) to determine the WSL Final 5.

In other words, in this 22’ season nine-out-of-ten event results will count, and given Gabs can only surf in five of them, every other surfer will have a four event head start on him in the rankings and he won’t be able to drop a score. 

Last year, the lowest ranked male qualifier for Final’s day was CT rookie, Morgan Cibilic who collected 25,270 points from his top five results. For Morgz, that means he averaged 5,054 points per scoring event to make Final’s day. If we imagine that the fifth qualifier for this season’s finals day has roughly comparable scoring results per event over nine contests that works out to be a total of 45,486 points to take out the fifth spot for Lowers. 

So what does that mean Gabby needs to do?

Things to notice here. 1.) Gabriel’s 12,665 point margin between himself and second. 2.) Morgan Cibilic, the last qualifier for Final’s day median score after his throwaway was 4,745 points or a quarter-finals finish at every event.

The point spread for 2022 is:

  • 1st: 10,000 points
  • 2nd: 7,800 points
  • 3rd: 6,085 points
  • 5th: 4,745 points
  • 9th: 3,320 points
  • 17th: 1,330 points
  • 33rd: 265 points

If Gabs wants to make it to the ~45,000 point Final’s day threshold it will require him winning four-out-of-five events after the mid-season cut, and place no worse than 3rd in the remaining event. When Gabby won his third title last year, it was one of the most commanding seasons professional surfing has ever seen. Gabs made five-out-of-seven finals, won two of them, and put a 12,665 point margin between himself and second… Were it not for the Final’s day format changes Gabs’ could’ve gone on holiday during the last event and still taken the title.

Of course, none of that mattered come Final’s day when it all hinged on beating Fil Toledo in a best of three surf-off, but it did mean something to core fans, who would’ve found it criminal had anyone other than Gabby lifted the trophy.

If Gabs wants to clinch his fourth title this year, he would need to achieve something more remarkable than his performance last season in the 5 CT’s from G-Land to Tahiti, and then go on to beat four of the best surfers from this season in a single day. 

So can Gabby win the World Title this year? Yes he can. 

Will Gabby win the World Title this year? Wouldn’t bet da house on it.

Comments

Comments are a Stab Premium feature. Gotta join to talk shop.

Already a member? Sign In

Want to join? Sign Up

Advertisement

Most Recent

Fiji Has Its First Professional Surfer, And He’s Unbelievable

16-year-old James Kusitino’s incomprehensible tube lounging leads to a deal with Former.

Jul 6, 2025

Laird Hamilton on The Limitations of Being a Purist, Invention vs. Ownership + Why He Never Had a Sticker Deal 

Untold stories from his How Surfers Get Paid interview.

Jul 4, 2025

Surf100 Challenge Series Presented By Pacifico: Episode 3

"The tribe has spoken," Dane Reynolds pronounced, and a surfer's torch was snuffed.

Jul 3, 2025

When Surfer’s Eye Is Actually Cancer

Erin Campbell's brutal journey from surf camp dreams to chemo drops, cryotherapy, and surgical horror.

Jul 3, 2025

Surfing’s 2025 Q2 Report

An assessment of surfing's vital signs throughout the second quarter of 2025.

Jul 2, 2025

What Actually Happened to Occy’s Mad Max Plunger Pool In Yeppoon?

Surf Lakes’ brass talks: internet hecklers, the unplugging of the plunger, and the Tom Curren…

Jul 2, 2025

Poor Goofy Foots 

Data shows that the world is stacked against goofs — they even make 15% less money than…

Jul 1, 2025

Britain’s First Wavepool Has Closed — What Really Happened?

Bankruptcy, social media hackings, debts unpaid — and yet, reopening looms.

Jul 1, 2025

Watch: Was Matt Meola’s Air Actually Better Than Hughie’s?

Watch the full Swatch Nines highlight reel and decide.

Jun 30, 2025

Houshmand Bludgeons Field To Win Second CT — Molly Picklum Tastes Blood, Snatches World #1 In Brazil

You can't argue with big surfing — that's Saquarema wrapped.

Jun 29, 2025

37 Years Old And World #1 — What’s Changed For Jordy Smith?

On rediscovering decades old surfboard templates, having a personality on the CT, and why this…

Jun 27, 2025

Tom Lowe Stars in ‘Let Me Live’

The wild, improbable ascent of Britain’s best big-wave surfer.

Jun 27, 2025

Saq Wrap: Italo Celebrates Mid-Heat, Griff Drops A Freestyle, Jordy + Yago Continue BBQing 20-YOs

Top seeds sow ruin, Final 5 starts to crystallize.

Jun 27, 2025

Surf100 Challenge Series Presented By Pacifico: Episode 2

Our seven surviving surfers confront an oddly large California beach break.

Jun 26, 2025

SEOTY: The ‘Once-In-A-Decade’ Caribbean Swell That Kelly Slater Passed On

Michael Dunphy stars in Jimmicane's 'Blue Veil'

Jun 25, 2025

Who Owns Bingin? Legal Fight To Stop Demolition Begins

Eviction notices served for all businesses built on state land.

Jun 25, 2025

Tony Hawk Just Named Hughie Vaughan’s Internet-Breaking Air Because… No One Else Can

89% of our IG poll respondents claimed the 'stale fish flipper' was the best air…

Jun 25, 2025

German Surfers: AN INVESTIGATION

Truth is the light by which the world can see. 

Jun 24, 2025
Advertisement