Freshwater Pro Day 2: Wavepools Not Actually All That Predictable!

You might have noticed that we posted yesterday’s, or actually today’s, comp report a little early. 

Like, 24 hours early. 

For those who didn’t catch onto the gag, we were testing the widespread theory that wavepool events are boring because they’re predictable. Well, after attempting to predict all the major points (and heat totals) from a day at Kelly Slater’s pool, let me tell you: unlike the wave, this competition is not easy to forecast. 

To be fair, we got off to a hot start. In yesterday’s report I wrote that Soli Bailey would open the day with a 6.5 on the left. Remarkably, he did just that. If I’d put $100 dollars on that thousand-to-one bet at the Tachi Palace and Casino, I probably wouldn’t be writing this right now but rather sailing to the Marshall Islands, where I would use my small fortune to build a cozy, self-sufficient hut on a remote, wave-rich atoll. 

Other than that, plus the fact that Gabby didn’t score below a seven (actually an eight) on any of his waves—which is similar to predicting a sunrise or the existence of piss on a public toilet seat—I got almost everything wrong. Scores, general happenings around the event, even the schedule of heats (why they ran four men’s and one women’s heat, I still do not understand).

So, could it be that the apparent “predictability” of wavepool events is actually total bullshit? Or was this just an off day for Stab‘s humble prophet?

Being the diligent surf scientist that I am, I decided to take another swing at predicting tomorrow’s happenings in order to properly examine the wavepool predictability theory.

Shall we?

You can always count on Soli for a 6.5.

Day two started with men’s Round 1, Heat 5.  

Luckily for me, I already wrote a men’s Heat 5 report yesterday, which you can get reacquainted with below: 

In a shocking turn of events, the day’s final first heat offered an interference, with Hawaiian Zeke Lau paddling out before his final set of waves and hassling wildcard Jett Schilling off his second right. 

The 16-year-old was granted a second chance to catch his final wave but fell on the drop because he was, “like, so rattled.”

Zeke offered no apology for his actions, stating simply, “Grom thought he could just come on the CT and take our waves? No way, bra. You gotta earn it in the big leagues.”

Zeke lost his second scoring ride as a result of the altercation, and Aussie limber lads Jack Free and Ry Cal advanced to Round 2, with Jordy Smith not far behind.  

Heat 5 totals:

1. Jack Freestone|Right:8.17|Left:6.77|Total:14.94

2. Ryan Callinan|Right:7.2|Left:7.33|Total:14.53

3. Jordy Smith|Right:8.5|Left:5.67|Total:14.17

4. Caio Ibelli|Right:4.57|Left:5.67|Total:10.17

5. Jett Schilling|Right:3.33|Left:5.27|Total:8.6

6. Zeke Lau|Right:6.17|Left:INT|Total:6.17

Did you know that for the Freshwater Pro, Ricardo Toledo has designed special whistles to alter Filipe’s surfing, mid-wave?

Like a well-trained pup, Filipe has an unconscious reaction (almost as if he was hypnotized) to different pitches of sound that hail from Ricardo’s wet lips—an extended C5 calls for an off-the lip, a double F4 is an air reverse, etc. 

Today, this strategy was executed seamlessly for 16.6 points and the second seed heading into Round 2. However, Filly and Ric might have to adopt a new plan moving forward. 

The WSL had no fans on Thursday and only VIP today. The first time general admission will be allowed to attend is tomorrow, Saturday. 

Gen ad, as we know, are a loud and boisterous bunch. The type of folks who hurl their beers and vocally protest at any vaguely questionable call. Who wear American flag bandanas and ripped cargo shorts. Who whistle when they’re excited.

And can you imagine the chaos in Filipe’s (probably hypnotized) mind if a few dozen viewers whistled while he rode?

If unable to isolate his father’s pitch, Filipe could be overwhelmed by the abundance of maneuver calls, causing a cutback to turn into fin drift, a fin-drift into a carving-three, and all of it into a fall.    

This evening, Charlie Medina was seen distributing a massive bag of whistles around the competition area and casino. We will investigate whether or not these situations are connected. 

Heat 6 totals:

1. Filipe Toledo|Right:9.27|Left:7.33|Total:16.6

2. Michel Bourez|Right:8.2|Left:5.17|Total:13.37

3. Sebastian Zietz|Right:7.2|Left:5.33|Total:12.53

4. Ricardo Christie|Right:6.57|Left:5.23|Total:11.8

5. Kade Matson|Right:3.33|Left:6.27|Total:9.53

6. Willian Cardoso|Right:2.3|Left:7.17|Total:9.43

Eliminated after Round 1:

Sebastian Zietz:12.53
Ricardo Christie:11.8
Crosby Colapinto: 10.66
Barron Mamiya: 10.57
Michael Rodrigues: 10.47
Caio Ibelli:10.17
Peterson Crisanto: 9.73
Kade Matson:9.53
Willian Cardoso:9.43
Mateus Herdy: 8.77
Jett Schilling:8.6
Zeke Lau:6.17

In truth, aerials have never been required to win female World Championships. Crisp face surfing, and maybe a couple of tubes, have always been enough to earn a crown. But 17-year old Caroline Marks knew she couldn’t get into Title contention by sticking to the status quo, so she spent hours upon hours in Kelly’s pool, attempting to master the end-section spin. 

Today, all of that practice came to fruition. Shooting out of the barrel like assassin’s slug, Caroline eyed the lip and leaned hard on her toes, hurling herself toward the vertical wall and into the air with a quick hip and shoulder rotation.

By shifting her front foot forward mid-flight, Caroline was able to soften the landing and control her spin-rate in the flats. Once in a stable position, the Florida teen let her fins engage and completed the final 180, earning herself a low nine from the judges and an eye roll from Stephanie Gilmore.

“This girl again,” the 7x Champ said without words.

Women’s Heat 2 totals:

1. Caroline Marks|Right:9.17|Left:7.77|Total:16.94

2. Keely Andrew|Right:8.2|Left:5.67|Total:13.87

3. Sally Fitzgibbons|Right:6.5|Left:6.5|Total:13

4. Tatiana Weston Webb|Right:5.83|Left:6.97|Total:12.8

5. Bronte Macaulay|Right:4.33|Left:5.27|Total:9.6

6. Macy Callaghan|Right:5.17|Left:2.33|Total:7.5

Morgan and I had quite the little come-up yesterday, selling scissor lift rides to the wonderful people of Lemoore. Four-thousand three-hundred twenty-two dollars was the net gain, subtracting rental fees, beer, and our dowry to Christyne.

And as anyone who’s been there knows, there’s only one place to go when you’ve got a pocket full of cash in Lemoore. 

Strutting into the Tachi Palace high on Coronas and Vitamin D, Morgan walked straight up to the roulette table, dropped $500 on red and won. 

Your author, being a more cautious gambler, placed a clean $100 bet on Coco Ho winning her round Round 1 heat, which was paying 8:1. 

…And now I know what it’s like to hate Carissa Moore.

Should have just bet on red. 

Women’s Heat 3 totals:

1. Carissa Moore|Right:9.0|Left:8.33|Total:17.33

2. Coco Ho|Right:8.2|Left:6.33|Total:14.53

3. Courtney Conlogue|Right:7.0|Left:6.37|Total:13.37

4. Brisa Hennessy|Right:6.57|Left:4.67|Total:11.14

5. Nikki Van Dijk|Right:5.33|Left:5.27|Total:10.6

6. Gabriella Bryan|Right:3.17|Left:3|Total:6.17

Eliminated after Round 1:

Brisa Hennessy: 11.4
Nikki Van Dijk: 10.6
Malia Manuel: 10.5
Bronte Macaulay:9.6
Macy Callaghan:7.5
Gabriella Bryan:6.17

The end of women’s Round 1 left enough time for the men to finish most of their bonus waves. With the field whittled down to 24 and just two rides remaining for each competitor, the race for the finals was on. 

The machine, however, was not. 

Some technical issue caused a 30-minute delay, leaving the low-seed Jadson Andre sitting in the tub longer than a white gal with a bath bomb. 

“Just five more minutes,” they kept telling us on the broadcast, and, presumably, to Jadson in the water.

When his wave finally did come, the Brazilian fell on his third turn and immediately started gesticulating toward… I actually have no clue.

Maybe the judges? The Commissioner? Dirk?

Pointing passionately at his feet, it was clear that Jadson had either gotten slippery soles from sitting too long in the silt or that he’d been unable to surf due to significant wrinkleage from extended water exposure.

A fair claim either way, I thought, but the judges didn’t agree. 

One more wave and Jadson was officially out, stomping his soggy toes all the way back to the Tachi.

Men’s Leaderboard Midway Through Round 2 (Surfers in bold still have to surf their bonus waves):

1. Gabriel Medina: 17.77
2. Filipe Toledo:16.6
3. Griffin Colapinto: 15.5
4. Italo Ferreira: 14.97
5. Jack Freestone: 14.94
6. Ryan Callinan:14.53
7. Kanoa Igarashi: 14.4
   
8. Jordy Smith:14.17
   Cut line
   
9. Conner Coffin: 14.07
10. Kelly Slater: 13.87
11. Julian Wilson: 13.84
12. Kolohe Andino: 13.73
13. Adrian Buchan: 13.7
14. Yago Dora: 13.63
    
15. Michel Bourez:13.37
16. Jesse Mendes: 13.3
17. Owen Wright 13.26
18. Joan Duru: 13.23
19. Seth Moniz 13.16
20. Soli Bailey: 13.00
21. Wade Carmichael: 12.76
22. Deivid Silva: 12.24
23. Jeremy Flores: 11.23
24. Jadson Andre: 10.94