Rookie Bettor Gets His Clock Cleaned At Perfect Pipeline, Comes Back For More - Stab Mag

Rookie Bettor Gets His Clock Cleaned At Perfect Pipeline, Comes Back For More

Take my money.

news // Jan 30, 2022
Words by Michael Ciaramella
Reading Time: 3 minutes

It appears my beginner’s luck has officially run out.

Yesterday was a blood-bath on betting front, as I lost all four of my Round 1 picks.

Zeke, Caio, Leo, and Miguel all placed second or third in their first heat.

“Classic rookie punting,” laughed my boss, Tom Bird, after seeing my approach to picking winners on America’s favorite surf-betting site,

So I tapped a few underdogs — big deal. You can’t make much money on the top guns, and I thought betting was all about fast cash. Lesson learned, $100 down the drain. Time to re-strategize and hopefully recoup some losses on day 2.

Men’s Round 2 picks

This time, I’m going to ignore the odds and simply pick the surfers that I think will win each matchup. I feel that the man-on-man format will be significantly easier to choose, as there’s less room for outliers or general funny business.

So, here goes — 16 heats, and I’ve got eight hopeful winners. I’m putting $10 on each of the following, unless otherwise stated:

Barron Mamiya (-175) over Conner Coffin (+135): B’s performance yesterday was absurd, more today please! (Potential win: $5.71)
Leonardo Fioravanti (+140) over Nat Young (-180): similar to the Owen/Kanoa heat, but I think this one will go to the regular-footer. I’m actually quadrupling-down on this one, as I feel it’s the best odds of the round. $40 on Leo. (Potential win: $70)
Miguel Tudela (+325) over Italo Ferreira (-550): Fine, I’m keeping one underdog. This guy is too good in the tube to not take the long odds. (Potential win: $32.50)
Carlos Muñoz (-110) over Frederico Morais (-130): A little smaller, a few more rights than yesterday, and Carlos is gonna go click in. (Potential win: $9.09)
Filipe Toledo (-110) over Ivan Florence (-130): I know Ivan is incredible, but with the waves getting smaller, Filipe’s odds increase substantially. And Ivan’s competitive acumen just isn’t there yet. (Potential win: $9.09)
Zeke Lau (+190) over Seth Moniz (-250): I think Zeke and Seth are a pretty even match-up, and with the payout significantly in Zeke’s favor, I’m taking him. (Potential win: $19)
Callum Robson (+200) over Ethan Ewing (-300): Cal was fucking sending it yesterday. If he makes a couple waves I think he’ll squeak a win against Ethan. (Potential win: $20)
– Samuel Pupo (+150) over Deivid Silva (-150): Straight up coin-toss on this one, so I’m taking the surfer who pays more—plus Samuel will have a better chance at Backdoor. (Potential win: $15)

Total Round 3 spend: $110 — some of these better hit or I’m screwed!

Here we go again.

Last night there were odds for the women, but I can’t seem to find them this morning. Which is a little annoying, because if I had to guess, the women will probably run today.

I think the BetOnline folks are still figuring out how the whole no-real-schedule-in-surfing thing works — which to be fair, is pretty tricky and annoying for betting purposes. I think it would help a lot if they allowed you to pick heats mid-round, rather than shutting down the betting as soon as a round starts, which is how their system currently operates.

But hey, we’re all just learning — you, me, and

In the meantime, I hope you’ll join me on this journey of enlightenment and financial mercurity.


Comments are a Stab Premium feature. Gotta join to talk shop.

Already a member? Sign In

Want to join? Sign Up


Most Recent

Mountains Died So You Could Surf

The value of sand.

Aug 15, 2022


UPDATE: People Are Still Surfing ‘La Jetee’ in Reunion Island

Returning to the best & sharkiest air wave in the world, as seen in Mod…

Aug 14, 2022

These Are Your Favorite (Female) Surfers

What the Stab reader survey teaches us about taste.

Aug 14, 2022


Kelly and Local Gal to Win Teahupo’o?

Local insights and a firing forecast.

Aug 13, 2022

These Are Your Favorite (Male) Surfers

Insights from the 2022 Stab Reader survey.

Aug 13, 2022


Fear And Loathing in Mainland Mex

Parker Coffin, Harry Roach, and the Roark crew embark on an authentic Oaxacan (surf) trip.

Aug 13, 2022

Tahiti Preview: The End Of The Road For 72% Of The CT

And hello there, blob of swell.

Aug 12, 2022


While Everyone Flocked To Tahiti, Kelly Stayed in Jbay

...And proceeded to rip the hell out of it on a "borrowed" 5-finned Tomo.

Aug 11, 2022


Can A GQ Cover Boy Take Out Teahupo’o?

Kauli Vaast is your incredibly handsome Tahiti trials winner.

Aug 11, 2022

Watch: Ramble On With Caity Simmers 

An action-rich tour behind the scenes of her triumphant first voyage to Oz.

Aug 11, 2022

PSA: Surf Filmers Not Welcome In Nicaragua

Cameras and drones are being seized on arrival, Stab spoke with two recent visitors.

Aug 11, 2022

Inside The Alternative Surfboard Marketing Machine 

Two of the biz's best — Matt Parker and Blake Peters — spill many beans.

Aug 10, 2022

The Tragic Parallels Between The Murder Of Ricardo Dos Santos & 8x World Jiu Jitsu Champion Leandro Lo

Two Brazilian sporting icons killed brazenly by off-duty police officers.

Aug 9, 2022

The Pick-Up, Vans US Open: In The Belly Of The Beast

Finger flips, shaping with Zion Wright, slurpees, Hawaiian takeovers, and the king of Surfline rewinds.

Aug 8, 2022

Albee Layer Discusses His Not-So-Budding Acting Career And The Upcoming Film “Sweet Adventure”

"Matt and Nora were tripping a little harder than I was just because they weren't…

Aug 8, 2022

Zeke Lau & Bettylou Sakura Johnson Win The Vans US Open Of Surfing 

Hawaii dominates HB.

Aug 8, 2022

How A Former CT Surfer Gets “Absolute Beginners” Barreled In A Matter Of Months

Luke Stedman elaborates on his Blackball surf programs.

Aug 7, 2022


Sweeter Than Stolen Honey 

A versatile Haydenshapes x Dylan Graves HP (and soft board) tested in weird waves.

Aug 7, 2022