Jake Paterson’s picks for the Billabong Pipe Masters

Words by Jake Paterson*

Injuries could play a big part in the 2014 Pipe Masters. The King, Kelly, is coming off a broken foot. John John is coming off a hamstring injury. Parko took a bad back slam at Backdoor. In my eyes, three of the favourites, and they’ve all been injured.

The World Title race is going to be very exciting – wildcards will play a huge part in it. Gabe and Mick will both draw them early so this opens up a little window for Kelly. But I think if Gabe can get past the wildcard he will be the 2014 world Champ.

My picks here are based on the swell forecast looking like it’s going to be huge Pipe…

*Jake Paterson is a wildly formidable ex-world tour surfer, a former Pipe Master, and a passionate fan of competitive surfing. He has one finger on the world tour’s pulse and another finger on his Sports Bet app. Do not challenge this man in Fantasy Surfing.

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John John Florence

Flawless, Mr Florence. ASP/Kirstin

Anywhere in the world, a local surfer at his home break is dangerous in a surf competition, let alone John, who’s one of the best surfers in the world and his local break is one of the hardest waves in the world to surf. He goes into the event as favourite only just over Kelly. He’ll have a cake walk until the quarterfinals where he’ll draw someone that could maybe challenge him. With the swell expected to be big, if not huge, it puts the ball even more into John’s court. By the looks of his last few sessions, his hamstring injury isn’t going to effect him at all. He was rated number one at the Surfer Poll this year, so could that mean something – he finished second to Kelly in the Surfer Poll and Pipe last year! Could it all turn around the other way in 2014? I really can’t wait to see!

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Gabriel Medina

Pure heart will get this kid into some wild situations. ASP/Kirstin

The swell forecast is playing straight into the hands of Gabe if you ask me. Big to huge Pipe, no Backdoor. Gabe is one of the best competition surfers in the world and showed this year in Tahiti that he can charge huge waves and be very calculated in every wave he charges. So if he can get past the wildcards in the early rounds, he will be your 2014 World Champ, I think. He has made the quarterfinal at Pipe before and has been in Hawaii for about three weeks surfing Pipe every day, so he’s ready. The question on everyone’s mind is, can he hold his nerve in the biggest pressure situation on the biggest stage of his career?

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Kelly Slater

Kelly’s won more Pipe Masters than anyone. Obviously. Volcom/Bielmann

Has won more Pipe Masters than any human on the planet. He won the Volcom Pipe event earlier this year just because he wanted to surf Pipe with only four guys out, so he knows the place like it’s his own backyard. He hasn’t surfed for about four weeks or so due to a foot injury, so this might play a tiny factor, but I doubt that The King will have any problems in the early rounds. It will be the quarterfinals where he’ll face his first challenge. Second favourite only because of the injury. I’m looking forward to seeing if it affects him at all. I think the Title is just a little far out of his grasp, but when and if he reads this, it might be the only motivation he needs to prove me wrong.

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Joel Parkinson

Parko swings into Pipe with the kind of subtle but brilliant form that’ll slip him into biz rounds without too much attention. Photo: Billabong/Duncan Macfarlane

Also injured after a brutal back slamming at Backdoor but I think he will should be 100 percent by the time he has to surf a heat. He’s won at Pipe before and has made a few finals as well. I just think he’s going to slide under the radar with everything else going on, and before you know it he’ll be in the semifinals and boom, could be surfing for a win. He charges big waves and loves the vibe of surfing Pipe.

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Josh Kerr

Yeah, Josh Kerr know how to ride the lightning. Photo: Billabong/Duncan Macfarlane

For a little guy, he surely does charge. There are a few of the guys around that I like to call TP’s (tube pigs), and Kerrzy is one of the best of them. No weakness in his backhand tuberiding, which makes a good Pipe surfer. Look at all the greats out at Pipe and they can go Backdoor and Pipe no worries. I put Kerrzy up there and he has the X factor of doing something crazy. He will be one to watch.

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Julian Wilson

Jules steps up when he needs to. A bad year means nothing when you’ve got a career on the horizon like this gent does. ASP/Cestari

Jules has had a really bad year, only getting past round three once all year! Most people like myself were expecting him to be battling for the title, but instead Jules was battling for his spot on tour! I think he has something to prove, that he is a contender and will charge harder than most in the big stuff. He’s in the race for the Triple Crown which I think is the next best thing to a World Title. He just needs to focus on not trying to get two 10 point rides every heat, but to get past the early rounds and then start putting it all on the line when he draws the big dogs.

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Owen Wright

It’ll be excellent to see Owen back at Pipe, and especially after his Chopes game this year. ASP/Cestari

Another one with something to prove, Owen was ok this year but after coming back from a year off due to injury, things just didn’t click straight away for him. There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that he charges, but you need to be calculated to charge big Pipe because before you know it you’ve charged too hard and broken your board and body and have lost your heat needing a 2.00! I’ve seen it all happen before. So like Jules, Owen needs to pick his battles and just get the job done when it calls for it. He’s also spent a lot of time out there in the past three or so weeks, which in my eyes makes you feel way more at home than the guys that paddle out at Pipe for the first time for their heat.

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Kai Otton

Kai is a wildman when it comes to big barrels. ASP/Cestari

Ottz loves left tubes and has had moments at Pipe where you think he was born out there. He needs a strong result and is the kind of person who, when his back is against the wall, will come out swinging. I’m looking forward to seeing him take the place apart. I just hope the heat draw doesn’t work against him. For example: You could draw Filipe or Owen in round three at 10 foot Pipe. I know who I would rather draw! Sometimes the luck of the draw makes all the difference.

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Freddy Patacchia

Freddy P. Everyone wants to see this man do well. Volcom/Bielmann

Freddy lives just down the road at Sunset but has never really done that well at Pipe. I feel it’s just around the corner. Super strong and fit and will have all the equipment needed for whatever mother nature is going to throw at these guys over the next week or so! He’ll be wanting to put on a good show for the local support crew, too.

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Jeremy Flores

Jeremy is pure danger in tubes of consequence (and especially lefts). ASP/Cestari

What a year this kid has had! From being in the top 10 from the ripe old age of 17 or 18, this year must be a spin out for him. Got suspended because he wears his heart on his sleeve and sometimes can’t control it, which made him miss his best event. Go back a couple of years to Tahiti when it was firing and he was a standout in huge left barrels… The forecast for Pipe looks like it’s going to be huge left Barrels. One of the best backside tuberiders in the business so it’s a no-brainer for me to have him in my team. He’s going to draw hard heats early because of his seed, but I really feel he wants to show everyone that he belongs in the top 10. Don’t forget he’s a Pipe Master, so will feel right at home out there.

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The 2014 Title race scenarios:

– If Medina finishes 2nd or better at the Billabong Pipe Masters, he will clinch the 2014 ASP World Title.
– If Medina finishes 3rd at the Billabong Pipe Masters, Fanning will need to win the event and Slater will be out of contention.
– If Medina finishes 5th at the Billabong Pipe Masters, Fanning will need to win the event and Slater will be out of contention.
– If Medina finishes 9th at the Billabong Pipe Masters, Fanning will need to finish 2nd or better and Slater will be out of contention.
-If Medina finishes 13th or 25th at the Billabong Pipe Masters, Fanning will need to finish 3rd to win or 5th to send the title race into a one-heat “surf-off” between himself and Medina.
– If Medina finishes 13th or 25th at the Billabong Pipe Masters, Slater will need to win the event.

Men’s Pipe Masters Invitational Round 1 Match-Ups:
Heat 1: Keanu Asing (HAW), Kalani David (HAW), Danny Fuller (HAW), Shane Dorian (HAW)
Heat 2: Ezekiel Lau (HAW), Alex Smith (HAW), Jamie O’Brien (HAW), Olamana Eleogram (HAW)
Heat 3: Ian Walsh (HAW), Kai Barger (HAW), Sunny Garcia (HAW), Reef McIntosh (HAW)
Heat 4: Granger Larsen (HAW), Kaimana Jaquias (HAW), Seth Moniz (HAW), Isaiah Moniz (HAW)
Heat 5: Torrey Meister (HAW), Joshua Moniz (HAW), Billy Kemper (HAW), Kalani Chapman (HAW)
Heat 6: Joel Centeio (HAW), Kiron Jabour (HAW), Kaito Kino (HAW), Makai McNamara (HAW)
Heat 7: Tanner Hendrickson (HAW), Gavin Gillette (HAW), Hank Gaskell (HAW), Nathan Florence (HAW)
Heat 8: Mason Ho (HAW), Pancho Sullivan (HAW), Dylan Goodale (HAW), Jack Robinson (AUS)

Billabong Pipe Masters Round 1 Match-Ups:
Heat 1: Joel Parkinson (AUS), Julian Wilson (AUS), Glenn Hall (IRL)
Heat 2: Michel Bourez (PYF), Sebastian Zietz (HAW), Raoni Monteiro (BRA)
Heat 3: John John Florence (HAW), Matt Wilkinson (AUS), Mitch Coleborn (AUS)
Heat 4: Kelly Slater (USA), Adam Melling (AUS), Dusty Payne (HAW)
Heat 5: Mick Fanning (AUS), Aritz Aranburu (ESP), TBD
Heat 6: Gabriel Medina (BRA), Dion Atkinson (AUS), TBD
Heat 7: Jordy Smith (ZAF), Jadson Andre (BRA), Jeremy Flores (FRA)
Heat 8: Kolohe Andino (USA), Fredrick Patacchia (HAW), Travis Logie (ZAF)
Heat 9: Josh Kerr (AUS), Kai Otton (AUS), Brett Simpson (USA)
Heat 10: Owen Wright (AUS), Adrian Buchan (AUS), Mitch Crews (AUS)
Heat 11: Nat Young (USA), Filipe Toledo (BRA), Alejo Muniz (BRA)
Heat 12: Bede Durbidge (AUS), Miguel Pupo (BRA), Tiago Pires (PRT)

Women’s Pipe Masters Invitational Heat: Stephanie Gilmore (AUS), Tyler Wright (AUS), Carissa Moore (HAW), Bethany Hamilton (HAW)

ASP Heritage Series Heat: Gary Elkerton (AUS), Tom Carroll (AUS), Derek Ho (HAW) and Sunny Garcia (HAW)