Here's Your 2019 CT Hopefuls

Today the Vans World Cup will determine 2018's QS graduates. There's ten spots, but more than a handful of hopefuls wishing to fill them.

Some, like Seth Moniz, Ryan Callinan, Deivid Silva and Peterson Crisanto have all but picked their jersey numbers. The remainder of the 10 though are a little more on edge. 

Below is a quick summary of the names you should familiarise yourself with come competition. We’re barely journalists here at Stab, and if history is any indicator, our mathematics is piss poor. But we’re (semi) certain our quick calculations here are enough of a vague indicator of who’s hopeful and who's not for a CT berth. 

The top-10, pre Sunset looked like this. Well, without those pesky double qualifiers Kanoa and Griffin. 

1 - Seth Moniz - 22,200

2 - Ryan Callinan - 20,460

3 - Deivid Silva - 19,860

4 - Peterson Crisanto 19,350

5 - Ricardo Christie - 17,700

6 - Leonardo Fiovaranti - 16,600

7 - Jadson Andre 14,160

8 - Ethan Ewing - 14,030

9 - Jorgann Couzinet - 13,660

10 - Mateus Herdy 12,960

It seems safe to assume that everyone from Leo upwards is safe. Both Leo and Ricardo will be adding a few more 1000 points to their tally post Sunset and should be safe from the tipping point. 

In the danger zone, Ethan, Jorgann, and Mateus have all been eliminated, with Jadson Andre being the only one of the bottom four dictating on his own terms. These three surfers will end up with the same point totals the were on pre-Sunset. Which are low in terms of previous year’s qualification cut offs – it’s typically around 16,000.

Here's who they'll be hoping drop out of the draw, as futile as that turns out to be. 

Jesse Mendes - 12,850 with at least 1,500 added after this event.

Soli Bailey 12,550 - at least 1,450 post Sunset. 

Jack Freestone - 11,450 - at least 1,450 extra after sunset. 

Putting them, at the very least,  on 14,350, 14,000 and 12,900 respectively. Tally's guaranteed to knock Jorgann Couzinet and Mateus Herdy out of the top-10. If Jack Freestone advances yet another round, he will be on the receiving end of over 3000 points and will also place himself within the top-10, subsequently knocking off Ethan Ewing. 

This however isn’t the end of it, there’s a number of stragglers who are still in the comp at Sunset, and while Final results are a near-requisite for any hope they have, the possibility can’t be ruled out.

These are names likes Jack Robinson, Carlos Munoz, Matt Banting, Matt McGivvilray, Vasco Ribeiro, and several other hopefuls who’ll need little short of a win to qualify for next year. All of these surfers are sitting between 9,175 and the high 6’s. For instance, Vasco was sitting on 9,175 before Sunset, he will need at least a semi-final appearance for any hope of qualification, and as we run further through that list the requirement quickly becomes a podium finish.

Jack Robinson and Matt Banting are sitting around 7,800, a good 7,000 off what will likely be necessary to qualify. Anything less than a second place finish therefore won’t suffice. And then there’s our previous ROTY, Connor O’Leary, on 6,650 who will need a win for any hope of qualifying via the grind – he’s currently 26th on the CT. 

The Vans World Cup at Sunset is expected to kick off again today and they’re aiming to wrap up the contest. Get your calculator ready. It’s going to be a close and probably fucking confusing one.

And here's the point system run-down!