Halfway Through Haleiwa, What's The Qualification Picture Look Like? - Stab Mag
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Q: How many pastels went into this Portuguese power hack? Photo: WSL

Halfway Through Haleiwa, What’s The Qualification Picture Look Like?

And how did a surfer who lost move up the leaderboard?

news // Nov 30, 2021
Words by Michael Ciaramella
Reading Time: 3 minutes

Have you been keeping tabs on Haleiwa, the final Challenger Series event of the 2021 season?

No? That’s okay. We’re here for you.

Or rather, the hyper-diligent crew from Lipped is here for us.

In an Instagram post yesterday evening, former QS surfer, current surf coach/podcast host/Excel enthusiast, Cahill Bell-Warren, explained the current qualification picture via a self-made spreadsheet. It’s as detailed as it is deranged.

Feel free to listen to Cahill’s full take above, and keep in mind that his projected post-Haleiwa cutline is 12,000 points. This contrasts with my personal projection, which is around 10,500. We’ll see who ends up closer to the real number once the event finishes

Below are our major takeaways from Cahill’s fine bit of research:

1. USA’s Jake Marshall and Australia’s Connor O’Leary are the second and third confirmed male qualifiers, along with Zeke Lau. This will be Connor’s fourth stint on the CT, the most successful of which being his rookie year in 2017. Meanwhile, Jake is the first San Diego-bred surfer to qualify for the tour since…Taylor Knox and Rob Machado in ’93? Correct us in the comments — and no, San Clemente surfers don’t count, even though Trestles is technically in SD County.

2. USA’s Nat Young and Hawaii’s Imaikalani Devault both lost early, but are still very likely to qualify at 12,100 and 12,000 points respectively.

3. Australia’s Liam O’Brien has likely secured his CT spot by winning a nail-biter over Hawaiian Barron Mamiya in Round 2. Tahiti’s Michel Bourez also lost in this heat, eliminating him from potential re-qualification.

Lob is on tour next year. You heard it here first. Photo: WSL

4. By losing in the second round, Peru’s Lucca Mesinas did not improve his CS scoreline but currently remains well within the cutline at 11,000 points.

5. Brazil’s Joao Chianca and Australia’s Callum Robson have made their heats, but their positions have not changed, as they haven’t yet earned enough points to replace the low score in their CS scoreline. To do so, Callum will need to place third or better in his next heat, and Joao will need to advance through at least one more round.

6. Australia’s Jackson Baker and Costa Rica’s Carlos Muñoz both suffered devastating losses. However, in an interesting twist, Jackson was still able to jump ahead of Carlos in the rankings because he bettered his previous low score of a 400, whereas Carlos stayed at the same total. They are currently 11th and 12th, with 10,700 and 10,650 points respectively.

7. With only two surfers (Kanoa Igarashi and Griffin Colapinto) currently in a position to double-qualify, the active cutline has fallen from the top-15 CS surfers to the top-14, as Leo Fioravanti has left the qualifying picture.

8. Australia’s Jordy Lawler is currently in possession of the last qualifying slot (14). He’s still in the event and will need to place third or better in his next heat to improve his position.

Can Sammy P come out from under big brother Miggy’s shadow and nab a spot in the big leagues? Photo: WSL

9. The next closest surfer to qualifying is Brazil’s Samuel Pupo (currently number 16), who needs to make his next heat to get inside the current cutline. After that is Brazil’s Alex Ribeiro (currently 21), who needs to make his next heat and place no worse than third in the subsequent heat to make the current cutline.

10. Besides Samuel and Alex, the surfers closest to the cutline heading into Haleiwa have gotten fairly massacred. Surfers eliminated from the event include: Brazil’s Mateus Herdy (17), Lucas Silveira (18), and Alejo Muniz (31); Tahiti’s Michel Bourez (19); Japan’s Shun Murakami (20); Australia’s Dylan Moffat (22); USA’s Cole Houshmand (23), Nolan Rapoza (24), and Michael Dunphy (28); etc.

11. Long-shots to make the tour include…technically, everyone still in the draw.

As for the females, well, let’s just say watch out for BLSJ.

16 and positively terrifying. Photo: WSL

Keep the numbers coming Cahill, and we’ll push the people your way.

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