A Brief Stocktake After The Season Opener

A bit early for a welfare check, you might say.

You think so? I might reply.

Yes, obviously. There’s nothing to be gained from such early inquisition. It is unnecessary and overbearing, you might point out.

Fair enough, I might say.

Oh, and by the way, may I avail myself of your lavatory? You might ask.

Ah. Aye. First door on the left, I might reply.

… 

Wait, but this is no lavatory at all! And who is this well-dressed man seated here?

Ha! I might say. I have beguiled you. That is no lavatory, but the therapy room, and you appear to require it. Had you been attending, you would know that frequent welfare checks upon those one holds dear are not only acceptable but proper and commendable. 

We all care for professional surfing, else we would not be here.

So, with that duly noted, let’s proceed to an early check in on the Surfboard Empire CT Shaper Rankings pres. by Veia, and the opening arithmetic of the GWM Aussie Treble, fresh from the first event of the year.

The Treble

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but with Miggy Pupo and Gabriela Bryan taking Bells, they now sit at the summit of the Treble standings as the tour heads west, both momentarily wrapped in the yellow jersey. The garment always looks slightly borrowed this early in the season, at least in Miggy’s case, as if the system has made an administrative error it hasn’t yet corrected.

Here’s the top nine.*

MEN

1. Miguel Pupo (Brazil) — 10,000

2. Yago Dora (Brazil) — 7,800

3. Griffin Colapinto (United States) — 6,085

3. Gabriel Medina (Brazil) — 6,085

5. Samuel Pupo (Brazil) — 4,745

5. Barron Mamiya (Hawaii) — 4,745

5. Kanoa Igarashi (Japan) — 4,745

5. Leonardo Fioravanti (Italy) — 4,745

9. Jordy Smith (South Africa) — 3,320

9. Marco Mignot (France) — 3,320

9. Jake Marshall (United States) — 3,320

9. Rio Waida (Indonesia) — 3,320

9. Italo Ferreira (Brazil) — 3,320

9. Filipe Toledo (Brazil) — 3,320

9. Alejo Muniz (Brazil) — 3,320

9. George Pittar (Australia) — 3,320

Interesting takeaways beyond Miggy sitting on top are Gabby and Griff both tucked into the narrow end of the draw to start the year, which feels slightly unnatural for two habitual late bloomers. 

Last year, as you’ll remember, Griff spent the first half of the season distracted, like a man watching his romantic reputation get publicly chewed on social media. He was close enough to smell the armpit of the yearly executioner as he raised his axe, then barely lost a heat through the back half of the year and eventually finished runner-up. There’s nothing more powerful than a broken heart, and if the newly-single Griff gets a proper start this year, then who exactly is stopping big bro Coca Cola once he’s shaken and fizzed?

Maybe it’s Medina. He looked statue-solid in his return, no visible residue of a year spent on the sidelines via a torn breast. Equal-best appearance at Bells, and Margaret River still stands as the last event he won, three years back.

Yago too, with a second place at Bells, finally breaks past a ceiling that had capped him at ninth until now. His best result there by some distance. Still looks in world title form, even after half a year off to revel in being the unlikely world champ. 

WOMEN

1. Gabriela Bryan (Hawaii) — 10,000

2. Molly Picklum (Australia) — 7,800

3. Alyssa Spencer (United States) — 6,085

3. Isabella Nichols (Australia) — 6,085

5. Bettylou Sakura Johnson (Hawaii) — 4,745

5. Lakey Peterson (United States) — 4,745

5. Caitlin Simmers (United States) — 4,745

5. Luana Silva (Brazil) — 4,745

Who you got for the title this year, out of the women? For mine, a new big three has clearly emerged: Gabby Bryan, Molly Picklum, and Caity Simmers. After her breakout last year, Gabby looks especially dangerous. Taking Bells, she now heads to Margs as the back-to-back champ, and the clear event favourite. If she makes it a three-peat out west, she’ll have the Treble essentially boxed off, and as we know from our highly sophisticated mathematical study on its effects, that leaves her sitting on roughly a 50% chance at the title.

Outside of those three, who comes to mind as a threat? Far too early to speak in absolutes, but I can only really see Caroline, or perhaps Erin Brooks if she springs to life, mounting a run. Isabella Nichols, too, deserves credit for clearly proving she’s capable on the Australian leg.

How did the return of Steph and Carissa look to you? Neither looked especially rusty in a meaningful sense, but the young gals definitely didn’t pause for them while they were gone. 

CT Shaper Rankings

Matt Biolos and …Lost Surfboards, reigning three-time CT Shaper of the Year and, as has been said with varying degrees of seriousness, the Bukowski of the surf industry, already looks inevitable. A strong opening to 2026, with representation in both men’s and women’s finals — Gabriela Bryan taking the women’s win, Yago Dora finishing runner-up in the men’s. Early signs of continuity and structural advantage for the Lost team. 

Behind them, the familiar Australian pressure system is already forming. Jason Stevenson (JS Industries) and Darren Handley (DHD) both land early blows — Miggy Pupo delivering JS a maiden Bells victory, while Molly Picklum continues to look like the centre of gravity for DH, finishing runner-up as she begins her world title defence.

Here’s what the finalists were riding:

Surfer: Gabriela Bryan
Make: Lost Surfboards (Mayhem)
Model: Step Driver
Dims: 5’10 x 18.75 x 2.38 x 28L
Tail: Rounded pin
Concave: Shallow
Notes from Biolos: She literally rides a StepDriver in everything on tour. Modest entry rocker with deceptively curvy, continuous curve tail rocker. Shallow concave. Like Riss, designed to hold power, more than anything else.

Surfer: Molly Picklum
Make: DHD
Model: MF Lightning / MF DNA R/T
Dims:
5’7″ x 18 3/16 x 2 1/4 x 23.8L
5’8″ x 18 3/16 x 2 1/4 x 24L (DNA R/T)

Surfer: Miguel Pupo
Make: JS
Model: Monsta
Dims: 5’10 x 18 1/2 x 2 1/2 x 26.8L
Tail: Squash

​​Surfer: Yago Dora
Make: Lost Surfboards (Mayhem)
Model: Formula 1 (Rnd Pin)
Dims: 6’0 x 19 x 2.50 x 30L
Tail: Rounded pin
Notes from shaper: Moderate rocker, with deeper concaves and curvy rail line. Wide-ish hips and precise, pronounced pin tail. Lots of lift and POP, with foam land on, tempered by low-ish rail volume and curvy outline, for precise turning. 

This year, results are capped at two per board, drawn from men, women, or one of each, with only quarterfinals-or-better counting. The intention is to prevent runaway victors via accumulation.

Matt Biolos once described his operation as “socialist” in SITDX, a nod to how freely he distributes boards across a sprawling roster (think Erin Brooks → Alister Reginato → Michael Rodrigues). For a San Clemente patriot with a global production line and roughly 20% of the CT under his umbrella, the system is designed to stop Matt Biolos from winning (by sheer volume alone). And yet, even when applied retroactively across the past three seasons, Biolos still comes out on top.

Here’s the shaper rankings after Bells.

1.  …Lost 17,800 (Gabriela Bryan 1st, Yago Dora 2nd)

          – Other teamrider results: Griffin Colapinto 3rd and Bettylou Sakura Johnson 5th.

2. JS – 14,745 pts (Miguel Pupo 1st, Samuel Pupo 5th)

          – Other teamrider results: Kanoa Igarashi 5th

3. DHD – 13,885 pts (Molly Picklum 2nd, Isabella Nichols 3rd) 

4. Sharp Eye – 10,830 pts (Alyssa Spencer 3rd, Caity Simmers 5th)

          – Other teamrider results: Leonardo Fioravanti 5th and Luana Silva 5th

5. Channel Islands – 9,490 pts (Lakey Peterson 5th, Barron Mamiya 5th)

Outside the Top 5 is Cabianca (in 6th) with 6,085 pts from Gabriel Medina’s 3rd place finish.

There you are. Feel better after that chat? Good. We’ll check back in soon, post Margs.