Filipe Toledo Will Beat Gabriel Medina By .02 Points To Win His 1st WSL World Title

And we’re back. 

It’s time for another foray into the field of clairvoyance. Instead of looking to the stars, we’ll be staring at an Excel sheet to see what the past has to say about the future. The format will be the same as the women’s recap we published the other day. This time, however, it will be focused on the men. 

Who’s going to win?
In short, Filipe will beat Gabriel Medina in the final with 13.74 points vs 13.72 points.

How did we get here? 
I ran through a multitude of stats to arrive at something that might point us in the direction of who ‘should’ win the Title this year. 

Here’s what I looked at: 

*Average Heat Score Across Careers
*Average Heat Score At Trestles (CT events only) 
*Average Heat Score At Beachbreaks* in 2021
*Head-To-Head heats (when applicable)

Some numbers had no bearing — for example, Morgan hasn’t competed at Trestles. And, as I said the other day, I included Rotto as a beachbreak as it features a left and right (more on this to come). This information might not create world peace or even win you any money, but it should get you thinking differently about the upcoming WSL Finals. 

The Numbers:
The elephant in the room, Filipe is a straight up beast at Trestles. In past CT events, he’s scored an average of 1.4 points more per heat compared to anyone else in the Top 5. 

AHS [average heat score] at Trestles 
Filipe – 16.23
Gabby – 14.83
Italo – 14.09
Conner – 12.87
Morgan – 0

This is the best shot Filipe has had at a World Title in his career. The cards are falling in his favor with Chopes being canceled, as a poor result there had the potential to knock him out of the Top 5. 

But, because he’s in the Top 5 and will be surfing at Trestles, you’d be hard-pressed to bet against him — even more so now that you’re reading an entire article claiming he’ll win. But there are other factors to consider. 

Italo leads Average Heat Score across his career, which makes sense to me in some ways and doesn’t in others. 

AHS (career) 
Italo – 13.01
Gabby – 12.76
Filipe – 12.67
Morgan – 11.43
Conner – 11.24

AHS only factors in your top two scores from each heat. In theory, the more waves you catch, the lower your average should be, because you’re giving yourself less of a chance to be on the good ones — and Italo catches A LOT of waves. But, obviously, the higher your scores, the higher your average. Even though Italo catches a lot of waves, he’s getting a lot of high-scoring waves every heat. It’s common for him to be in a position where his backup scores could have won heats. He’s simply that good. 

Other than that, I’d imagine Morgan is currently besting Conner, due to his short run of CT events and having such a stellar first year out of the gates. 

Gabby leads the Average Heat Score across beachbreak events in 2021 and is almost a point clear of Italo, with Morgan surprisingly coming in at 4th. 

AHS (beachbreaks) 
Gabby – 13.56
Italo – 12.62
Filipe – 12.33
Morgan – 12.01
Conner – 11.71

Using beachbreaks as a data point might sound contentious, but hear me out. 

It’s important to look at how surfers have been performing this year, but there’s no sense comparing events that don’t feature remotely similar waves. So I whittled it down to beach-breaks and pulled Newy, Narra and Rotto into the mix. Rotto is a reef break, I know, but it’s similar to Lowers with the left/right peak. Narra and Newy are straight-up beachies. None of the locations really align with Trestles, but they are the best indicators of pure high performance surfing we’ve seen so far this year — and that’s what Lowers is all about. 

How did I get a specific heat score for Gabby vs Filipe?
In short, I took the three numbers we covered and averaged them out. (Career AHS, Trestles AHS, 2021 Beachies AHS). Here’s what that number looks like for every surfer in the Top 5. 

Overall: 
Filipe – 13.74
Gabby -13.72
Italo – 13.24
Conner – 11.94
Morgan – 11.72

As you can see, when we run it that way, Filipe beats Gabby by halfa bee’s dick. Granted, that is one number and the two surfers will have to surf a best-of-three showdown. To help flatten the crease out, I can tell you that Filipe and Gabby have surfed against each other head-to-head five times with Filipe taking 3 wins over Gabby’s 2. In fact, Gabby hasn’t beaten Filipe H2H (head-to-head) since Pipe Masters in 2014. 

Here is Filipe’s record against all Top 5 surfers: 

Against Italo – 8 heats, 4 wins apiece (most recent: Filipe > Italo at Margies) 
Against Conner – 2 heats, 1 win apiece (most recent: Filipe > Conner at Newcastle)
Against Morgan – Null. They haven’t surfed a H2H heat. 

Now, let’s take it a step further and use what we know to break it down heat-by-heat. Again, these are just numbers. There’s quite a difference between running an equation and running a surf event — which is the whole reason why we watch. 

Heat 1 – Morgan vs Conner
No H2H heats. 

Conner has more experience in comps at Trestles, but Morgan has a higher overall AHS, and a higher AHS in 2021’s beacbreaks. Stats tell me Morgan will win this heat, just by a little. I’m going to say he’ll do it on the lefts, too. 

Heat 2 –  Morgan vs Filipe
No H2H heats. 

Filipe is lord of Lowers, and his stats look better on every column. I’d consider it a major upset if Morgan won this heat. But, then again, Morgan’s year has been full of surprises. 

Heat 3 – Filipe vs Italo
As discussed, these two have had eight H2H heats, and it’s been even pickings at four wins each. Again, the most recent win went to Filipe at Margies (but Italo took out Filipe at Newy, so it’s 1:1 this year). Given that H2H results are on equal footing, we’ll revert to AHS numbers and Filipe comes out on top at Trestles by 2.5 points. 

It could go either way, but I’m leaning on Filipe to take the win. 

The Finals – Filipe vs Gabby
As you read above, the numbers say Filipe will win. I’m claiming he’ll take out the first heat by hundredths of a point, Gabby will win the 2nd, then Filipe wins the 3rd and secures his first World Title. 

What do you think?