Who’s Going To Win Newcastle?

There’s nothing like new board day.

The inescapable anxiety of traction pad application. That kind of awkward, but also strangely satisfying first wax job. The giddiness of getting your first wave on it, hoping that it will understand what, specifically, your body is trying to tell it to do. 

If you’re here, it’s fair to assume you’re fond of all this. Which is why we want to give (one of) you a free Pyzel. 

All you have to do is tell us who’s going to win the first CT event of 2021, the Rip Curl Newcastle Cup. Note that our comments are open to Premium members only. You gotta pay to play, and you gotta play to win.

To give you some inspiration, intel, or neither, we asked a few people who obsess over surfing: The Stab Staff. Our answers are below. 

Put yours in the comments for a chance to win. In the likely event that more than one person picks the same surfer, the best answer will be chosen as the winner. So, if you’re going with one of the usual suspects, you ought to add some spice to your comment.

Also note that only comments before Friday, April 2nd will qualify to win. Word is that the comp will start on Thursday, April 1 if you want to try before you buy.

Good luck. And, lastly, here’s a warm up clip from last week if you care to do extra research.  

Name: Michael Ciaramella
Age: 27, with crows’ feet like a geriatric mole rat
Job: Roasting people on Instagram
Who: Filipe Toledo
Why: Filipe Toledo is wildly undervalued stock. Maybe it’s because of covid, maybe it’s because he’s been quiet on socials, maybe it’s because Pipe was the first event of the year rather than Snapper. But let me remind you: this guy is still the best average-beach-break surfer in the world. And with the new tour schedule and format, he’s in a better position than ever to win a World Title. It all starts in Newcastle. 

Name: Zack Raffin
Age: 23
Job: Watching surf vlogs so you don’t have to
Who: Ryan Callinan
Why: I’ve never been to Australia, let alone Newcastle, but from the clips I’ve seen it appears to be a bit mushy… meaning sections for one-score maneuvers like that in Brazil/France/Portugal will likely not be as prevalent. Given that this is still a beachbreak, hi-fi surfing will likely win. I’m picking Ryan Callinan because he doesn’t need big sections to produce big scores on small waves, he has the best-looking tail throw maneuvers on tour, is a Newcastle local and, lastly, completed quarantine roughly 2 months before the tour’s arrival. No need to warm up when the fire’s already blazing.

Name: Jack Mutschler
Age: 22
Job: Mikey C’s little helper
Who: Crosby Colapinto
Why: Kid is an absolute monster. If a minotaur saw the Crozz walking towards him on a sidewalk it would cross the street just to avoid any confrontation. When he wins I’m taking my prize money (someone in the Oz office throw down $100 for me pls) and buying Griffin’s WSL jersey, then scribbling a big ol “The Crozz” on it.

Note: Seriously, if someone in the Oz office could throw a $100 US on Crosby winning it all for me, that would be great.

Name: Will Stiles
Age: 27
Job: Video
Who: Jack Robinson
Why: He was surfing really well during his time in Hawaii. Newcastle could be on the smaller/medium size (from how far I can scroll on Surfline), but maybe it’ll pick up at the end of the waiting period. I’m nearly-almost-positive, if it gets big, Jack’s going to win it… probably. What do I get if I/Jack wins?

[Ed’s note: A complimentary tattoo.] 

Name: Shinya Dalby
Age: 20-60
Job: Art Direction
Who: Connor O’Leary 
Why: Overlapping heritage. But also, I’m serious. This will depend on Merewether point kinda doing its thing to weaponize that raw backside wind-up thing he’s got going on, which I’ve seen over and over in real life out at Lennox Point (and you have too, on the internet). He might also need to unlock a strategy to be on the best waves, but if he finds them, he won’t let you down.

Name: Brendan Buckley
Age: 31
Job: CEO Of ASP
Who: John John Florence
Why: Because he’s the best surfer in the world. Because he didn’t post any shirtless workout videos during quarantine. Because he won three out of the last five events he’s completed in (barring injuries). But mostly because it’ll be funny when we’re all wrong and Wade Carmichael wins.

Name: Dylan Roberts
Age: 28
Job: The films
Who: Ryan Callinan
Why: Because his surfing is amazingly well rounded from airs to turns to cones, all of which may be needed for this event. And he’s the hometown hero. My god it would be all time if he could go all the way.

Name: Mikey Mallalieu
Age: 28
Job: The other new guy
Who: Yago Dora 
Why: His latest clip has everything. His combos are something else, and are all done with style and grace. And the airs are mind-blowing. He looks real comfortable and confident—with a knack for pulling crazy moves in subpar waves he will be a threat in any condition Newcastle throws out. Go Yago!!! 

Name: Ashton Goggans
Age: 36
Job: Stab US’s Recently Returned Absentee Father
Who: Jack Robinson
Why: You can ask me this question anywhere on tour and I’ll repeat the same answer. Kid’s got Bruce’s style and tuberiding, with a flicky Taj-esque small wave game that will give him in-the-clutch confidence. He also just spent three months paddling against the gnarliest currents at Haleiwa and Sunset, and surfed shitty Sandbar and Ehukai more than any other visitor on the North Shore all winter.