Stab Magazine | Who To Bet On: The Billabong Pro, Tahiti

Live now: How Surfers Get Paid, Season Finale


Who To Bet On: The Billabong Pro, Tahiti

The swell forecast is not ideal. It’s rarely gonna push past head high. That is, of course, if forecasting is to be trusted (the ocean doesn’t care for such things). Either way, it’s unlikely we’ll enjoy a Code Red or similar. So, to liven up the not-quite-amazing event that shall be, you can throw some […]

news // Mar 8, 2016
Words by stab
Reading Time: 3 minutes

The swell forecast is not ideal. It’s rarely gonna push past head high. That is, of course, if forecasting is to be trusted (the ocean doesn’t care for such things). Either way, it’s unlikely we’ll enjoy a Code Red or similar. So, to liven up the not-quite-amazing event that shall be, you can throw some cash in the mix. Even the lightest flutter will take you from enjoying a pretty cool webcast with some suds, to pulling your hair out and screaming, pacing around the room while your man paddles back out. But Stab recommends only one thing: Gamble responsibly. And to assist you, Stab turned on the lights of Luke Munro’s telephone. Mun is an ex-world tour star, a close pal of Kelly’s, and now the authoritative surfing voice at TopSport.

Oh, and just so you know: Owen Wright, Glenn Hall, Tiago Pires, Dusty Payne and Raoni Monteiro have all withdrawn due to injury. So, We have the two trials winners, Alain Riou and Anthony Walsh. Then, the two ASP replacements due to withdrawals, being Patty Gudauskas and Yades Nicol. Then, the three event replacements due to withdrawals, being Nathan Hedge, Jocelyn Poulou (local) and Ian Walsh…

Says Mun overall: “Ok, Chopes. I can’t make up my mind here, I’m usually pretty opinionated. But I was opinionated for Bali, and it ended up being like throwing a dart at a board and hoping for the best. Kelly’s a clear favourite at $5.50. After Fiji, Chopes is probably his strongest event. John John is $8, but based on the forecast not being big, I don’t think he’s anywhere near as big a threat when it’s three or four feet out there,” (if it gets big howevs, ain’t a safer bet).

On the brevity of favouritism: “It’s amazing, you go back to Bali and Jordy was $7, and this event he’s $26. That’s what’s so cool about the surfing tour, a guy can literally be the favourite one event, and then $26 at the next event.”

Darkhorses: “Anthony Walsh. And Alain Riou. Nathan Hedge gets a run, and Jocelyn Poulou and Ian Walsh. I’m not too sure about Ian Walsh, and while the Tahitian wildcard is a goofyfooter,  I don’t think he’s quite as classy as Anthony and Alain out there. I think Alain and Anthony could be genuine threats all the way up to the semis. They can easily make the quarters or a semi. I’m not sure I can see them winning it, but I mean, in round one Alain’s drawn Jordy (Smith) and Travy (Logie), I’ve got him there as equal favourite with Jordy to win that opening round heat.”

It’ll be a goofies game: “If it’s smaller, it’s 100 percent gonna be a goofyfooter’s event. The smaller it gets, the harder it is for the natural-footers to compete out there. You just have to make so many more adjustments, and there’s no way you can compete with the goofyfooters if there’s any sort of crumble or tight barrels. I hate to say it but I’ve got a feeling that with the swell forecast being three or four foot, it might be someone like Gabriel Medina’s event. And looking at the market he’s $31 at the moment, I might have to actually bring him in a little bit if we start getting some money. I really doubt we’ll see another final like last year (Mick and Joel), given the forecast. There’s no way that natural-footers will fill the finals.”

Top guys to watch: “All goofyfooters. It’s just too hard to thread barrels and make barrels on your backhand out there when it gets that little bit smaller and more compact. So, Gabriel, Miguel Pupo, Alain, Anthony, the Hobgoods, Adrian Buchan, Kai Otton.”

Heat 1: 
Nat Young (USA), Bede Durbidge (AUS), Patrick Gudauskas (USA)
Heat 2: Taj Burrow (AUS), Matt Wilkinson (AUS), Nathan Hedge (AUS)
Heat 3: Jordy Smith (ZAF), Travis Logie (ZAF), Alain Riou (PYF)
Heat 4: Joel Parkinson (AUS), Kolohe Andino (USA), Anthony Walsh (AUS)
Heat 5: Kelly Slater (USA), Brett Simpson (USA), Ian Walsh (HAW)
Heat 6: Mick Fanning (AUS), Fredrick Patacchia (HAW), Jocelyn Poulou (PYF)
Heat 7: Adriano de Souza (BRA), Adrian Buchan (AUS), Kieren Perrow (AUS)
Heat 8: Michel Bourez (PYF), Kai Otton (AUS), Yadin Nicol (AUS)
Heat 9: Josh Kerr (AUS), Gabriel Medina (BRA), Alejo Muniz (BRA)
Heat 10: C.J. Hobgood (USA), Jeremy Flores (FRA), Adam Melling (AUS)
Heat 11: Julian Wilson (AUS), John John Florence (HAW), Miguel Pupo (BRA)
Heat 12: Sebastian Zietz (HAW), Filipe Toledo (BRA), Damien Hobgood (USA)

TopSport here.


Comments are a Stab Premium feature. Gotta join to talk shop.

Already a member? Sign In

Want to join? Sign Up


Most Recent

Sun Room: The Overnight Success Of A Young Surf Band

What's it like touring the world and living off of McDonald's?

Mar 25, 2023

How Surfers Get Paid, Episode 6

An instructional manual for the modern professional surfer

Mar 23, 2023


Caity Simmers — Extreme Competitive Surf Vlogger

Cool is chemical.

Mar 23, 2023

Globe Pulls Out Of The Apparel Game

…and, Taj Burrow and Dion Agius are now looking for new main sponsors.

Mar 22, 2023

Owen Wright Announces Retirement From Competitive And Heavy-Water Surfing

But will surf final CT event at Bells.

Mar 22, 2023


Fancy An Ale, Some Good Music, And A Bunch Of Tubes?

Ballet's minimalist full-length will satiate your needs.

Mar 22, 2023

João Chianca Spent Seven Years On The QS Without A Sponsor

And look where he is now.

Mar 22, 2023

Take Stab’s 2023 Audience Survey, Win A 3-Board Quiver

Stab towels and Premium subscriptions also up or grabs.

Mar 21, 2023

Jessi Miley Dyer On The New Challenger Series Schedule And More

Did you know that you could miss the mid-year cut and still theoretically win the…

Mar 20, 2023


Don’t Miss The Last Wave Of The First 2023 SEOTY Entry

Jacob Willcox's ‘Into Dust’ just set the bar.

Mar 20, 2023

Warren Smith on New Welcome Rivers Range and Buying Jaguars on Facebook Marketplace  

Now available in the Antipodes...

Mar 20, 2023


Wavegarden Spills How The Sausage Is Made

BTS of their global air wave rollout ft. Yago Dora, Dion Agius, Reef Heazlewood and…

Mar 18, 2023

Minds, Machines, And The Magic Of Hands

How modern shapers split their time between designing files and hand-finishing boards.

Mar 18, 2023


Are Hectic Lefts The Final Finless Frontier?

William Aliotti is on the right-foot-forward fringes.

Mar 17, 2023

Watch: Luke + Eddie

A mostly unknown, on-duty lifeguard won the most prestigious big-wave event in history. How Luke…

Mar 17, 2023


A Pipe Master, Ryan Burch, And Some Pickle Forks On The Eastern Seaboard

This one ticks a lot of boxes

Mar 16, 2023

Brazil Has A Talent Problem

And three other things we learned from the Rip Curl Pro Portugal.

Mar 16, 2023


Mick Fanning On A Unicorn, Bags Of Dicks, And A Shocking Script Read By Surfing’s Biggest Stars

Vaughan Blakey and Nick Pollet on their outrageous film, 'The Greatest Surf Movie In The…

Mar 15, 2023