Who To Bet On For The Corona Open Mexico

Disclaimer: I have never placed a bet in my life. 

That’s not quite true actually, I once went to Casino Barierre in Barritiz and slid a 50 euro note into the slot machine that was never to be seen again. Does that count as betting? Yeah, I guess. Was it exciting? No, it was not. It was a farce, but then we left and ran into two beautiful french girls from Evian (yeah, like the water company named after the Alpenese town on the France-Swiss border) who were exciting and giggled as we tried to pitch a tent on La Grande Plage, the Huntington or Bondi equivalent of France. Needless to say, we were awoken hours later by the lights of a beach groomer about to blend us into a bourguignon.

Importantly, or perhaps not so importantly, we didn’t die and had possession of aforementioned cute, giggling Evian girls’ numbers. If you trace the causal chain back a few steps, and rub out the in-between, we had taken a gamble and it had paid off, therefore gambling is good. 

Here’s how to gamble irresponsibly on the Quiksilver Corona Open Mexico.

The comp waiting period starts today. It will most likely run tomorrow. With Julian, John, Jordy and Jack Freestone (all the J’s for some reason) out of the mix, we will see five wildcards filling the void. Indonesia’s Rio Waida, Peru’s Lucca Mesinas, Mexico’s Johny Corzo and Diego Cadena, and Brazil’s Matheus Herdy. 

According to Sportsbet, the most likely winner is Filipe Toledo who’s paying 4.50 to win. The least likely is Jadson Andre who’s paying 126. If you thought playing crypto stock was radical, just wait till you hedge your bets on Jadson winning a CT final. 

If the heat of free-surfing clips is anything to base bets off, Ethan Ewing should be on your radar. His rail game is sublime and if his AI-esque style counts for anything, it surely counts for a couple spare bucks placed on the Straddie-stallion to make a final’s appearance. He’s paying $17 for the W in Oz, apparently $41 in Europe. I guess they have an Abberton-esque view of the Sunny Coaster.

Brazil’s Mateus Herdy is my tip. Apart from being a World Junior Champ, current Stab High Monster Air leader and the hottest thing since Hansel, he’s also incredibly gifted at competition surfing, reliably stomping big exciting airs and comboing them up with clinical face work. He’s paying 81 for the top spot. It would be a uuuge win that warrants a fiver — that’s a 405 payout from a couple of gold coins. 

Safe money’s on Filipe, Gabe and Italo, who are paying 4.50, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively. Every CT event you think the ‘specialists’ will throw a spanner in the works and 90% of the time they’re swiftly booted from the mix by the steely top seeds. Gabs has made 5 out of 6 finals, Italo’s coming off an Olympic gold and Filipe has won 2 of the last 3 CT events. Bet the house on one of these three. 

Other decent picks could be Owen Wright’s backhand (26.00), Quinoa Igarashi’s samurai form (13.00), Morgan Cibilic’s bullishness (41.00), and Griffin Cola’s protean excellence (11.00). 

Luckily for viewers, Mexico lends itself to well-rounded surfing. Barrels, lip and face turns, with the sporadic air section. After the Olympics and the Surf Ranch, we could all be spared from watching another air-reverse orgy. 

On the Women’s side of the draw, six out of the last seven events have had different winners, making them harder to predict.

Carissa Moore (3.30) however, is your safest bet. She’s made the semi-finals or better in every competition this year and has just come off the back of a blazing gold-medal performance in the Olympics. Also the bowly Mexican walls are not unlike her home break of Honolua Bay, well suited to her powerful carves and skilful tube riding.

Johanne Defay (8.50) currently sits in second place on the rankings and has only improved on her finishes since the beginning of the year. After taking out the Jeep Surf Ranch Pro she also has momentum behind her that could carry her to a finals finish.

Because of how good the waves are, I wouldn’t count Steph (5.50) or Tatiana Weston-Webb (10.00) out, who in my opinion are some of the best and most stylish point break surfers in the contest.

Many of the US surfers in this comp will have spent half their lives surfing Mexico. They will know it on all tides, swells and winds which may afford them some extra know-how navigating the lineup. Caroline (6.50), Kolohe (17.00) this is you we’re talking about. Give the Sepo’s something to shotgun a Coors for.

May the odds be ever in your favor.