Who To Bet On For The Corona Open Mexico - Stab Mag

'Vacation Presented By Monster Energy' Drops 5pm on Thurs, March 30 (PT)

With five wildcards in the mix, it's anyone's guess who takes the W.

Who To Bet On For The Corona Open Mexico

Gamble irresponsibly.

news // Aug 10, 2021
Words by Ethan Davis
Reading Time: 3 minutes

Disclaimer: I have never placed a bet in my life. 

That’s not quite true actually, I once went to Casino Barierre in Barritiz and slid a 50 euro note into the slot machine that was never to be seen again. Does that count as betting? Yeah, I guess. Was it exciting? No, it was not. It was a farce, but then we left and ran into two beautiful french girls from Evian (yeah, like the water company named after the Alpenese town on the France-Swiss border) who were exciting and giggled as we tried to pitch a tent on La Grande Plage, the Huntington or Bondi equivalent of France. Needless to say, we were awoken hours later by the lights of a beach groomer about to blend us into a bourguignon.

Importantly, or perhaps not so importantly, we didn’t die and had possession of aforementioned cute, giggling Evian girls’ numbers. If you trace the causal chain back a few steps, and rub out the in-between, we had taken a gamble and it had paid off, therefore gambling is good. 

Here’s how to gamble irresponsibly on the Quiksilver Corona Open Mexico.

The comp waiting period starts today. It will most likely run tomorrow. With Julian, John, Jordy and Jack Freestone (all the J’s for some reason) out of the mix, we will see five wildcards filling the void. Indonesia’s Rio Waida, Peru’s Lucca Mesinas, Mexico’s Johny Corzo and Diego Cadena, and Brazil’s Matheus Herdy. 

According to Sportsbet, the most likely winner is Filipe Toledo who’s paying 4.50 to win. The least likely is Jadson Andre who’s paying 126. If you thought playing crypto stock was radical, just wait till you hedge your bets on Jadson winning a CT final. 

If the heat of free-surfing clips is anything to base bets off, Ethan Ewing should be on your radar. His rail game is sublime and if his AI-esque style counts for anything, it surely counts for a couple spare bucks placed on the Straddie-stallion to make a final’s appearance. He’s paying $17 for the W in Oz, apparently $41 in Europe. I guess they have an Abberton-esque view of the Sunny Coaster.

Chill fam.

Brazil’s Mateus Herdy is my tip. Apart from being a World Junior Champ, current Stab High Monster Air leader and the hottest thing since Hansel, he’s also incredibly gifted at competition surfing, reliably stomping big exciting airs and comboing them up with clinical face work. He’s paying 81 for the top spot. It would be a uuuge win that warrants a fiver — that’s a 405 payout from a couple of gold coins. 

Safe money’s on Filipe, Gabe and Italo, who are paying 4.50, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively. Every CT event you think the ‘specialists’ will throw a spanner in the works and 90% of the time they’re swiftly booted from the mix by the steely top seeds. Gabs has made 5 out of 6 finals, Italo’s coming off an Olympic gold and Filipe has won 2 of the last 3 CT events. Bet the house on one of these three. 

Other decent picks could be Owen Wright’s backhand (26.00), Quinoa Igarashi’s samurai form (13.00), Morgan Cibilic’s bullishness (41.00), and Griffin Cola’s protean excellence (11.00). 

Luckily for viewers, Mexico lends itself to well-rounded surfing. Barrels, lip and face turns, with the sporadic air section. After the Olympics and the Surf Ranch, we could all be spared from watching another air-reverse orgy. 

On the Women’s side of the draw, six out of the last seven events have had different winners, making them harder to predict.

Carissa Moore (3.30) however, is your safest bet. She’s made the semi-finals or better in every competition this year and has just come off the back of a blazing gold-medal performance in the Olympics. Also the bowly Mexican walls are not unlike her home break of Honolua Bay, well suited to her powerful carves and skilful tube riding.

Johanne Defay (8.50) currently sits in second place on the rankings and has only improved on her finishes since the beginning of the year. After taking out the Jeep Surf Ranch Pro she also has momentum behind her that could carry her to a finals finish.

Because of how good the waves are, I wouldn’t count Steph (5.50) or Tatiana Weston-Webb (10.00) out, who in my opinion are some of the best and most stylish point break surfers in the contest.

Many of the US surfers in this comp will have spent half their lives surfing Mexico. They will know it on all tides, swells and winds which may afford them some extra know-how navigating the lineup. Caroline (6.50), Kolohe (17.00) this is you we’re talking about. Give the Sepo’s something to shotgun a Coors for.

May the odds be ever in your favor.


Comments are a Stab Premium feature. Gotta join to talk shop.

Already a member? Sign In

Want to join? Sign Up


Most Recent

Rio Waida Has Been Surfing Onshore, Oversized Bells Alone

...and he might not go home all year.

Mar 29, 2023


John Florence Releases Long-Form Piece On The 243km Great Ocean Squiggle

Tourism Victoria going, ‘he just did our job for us’.

Mar 29, 2023


Japanese Rice Farmer Enjoys Frightening Sumatran West Bowls

Kaito Ohashi is on his best behavior.

Mar 28, 2023

Watch: When People Like This Speak, We Listen

Raw, extended conversations with Clyde Aikau and Eddie Aikau winner Luke Shepardson.

Mar 28, 2023


Diamond Tail = Diamond Hands?

We'll explain everything in the Rusty D-Min Joyride.

Mar 27, 2023

Behold Australia’s Nine & NZ’s Two Challenger Series Qualifiers*

May the Southern Cross smile upon you at Snapper.

Mar 27, 2023

An Unordinary Life Structured Around A Tidal Bore

Long Read: The life and times of Pete Beachy.

Mar 26, 2023


Watch: ‘Haiku’

Scenes From a Remote Reality, by Vans & Karina Rozunko

Mar 25, 2023

Sun Room: The Overnight Success Of A Young Surf Band

What's it like touring the world and living off of McDonald's?

Mar 25, 2023

How Surfers Get Paid, Episode 6

An instructional manual for the modern professional surfer

Mar 23, 2023


Caity Simmers — Extreme Competitive Surf Vlogger

Cool is chemical.

Mar 23, 2023

Globe Pulls Out Of The Apparel Game

…and, Taj Burrow and Dion Agius are now looking for new main sponsors.

Mar 22, 2023

Owen Wright Announces Retirement From Competitive And Heavy-Water Surfing

But will surf final CT event at Bells.

Mar 22, 2023


Fancy An Ale, Some Good Music, And A Bunch Of Tubes?

Ballet's minimalist full-length will satiate your needs.

Mar 22, 2023

João Chianca Spent Seven Years On The QS Without A Sponsor

And look where he is now.

Mar 22, 2023

Take Stab’s 2023 Audience Survey, Win A 3-Board Quiver

Stab towels and Premium subscriptions also up or grabs.

Mar 21, 2023

Jessi Miley Dyer On The New Challenger Series Schedule And More

Did you know that you could miss the mid-year cut and still theoretically win the…

Mar 20, 2023


Don’t Miss The Last Wave Of The First 2023 SEOTY Entry

Jacob Willcox's ‘Into Dust’ just set the bar.

Mar 20, 2023