Kelly And Steph Are In Trouble

Kelly Slater is not having his best year on tour.

That moment came in 2008, when Kelly won six of 10 events and had an 88% heat-winning percentage. In comparison, his 2023 has been fairly anemic — zero event wins, 12.5% heat-winning percentage…and just one heat score in the double-digits.

The numbers aren’t great, but considering the man is 51 years old (nearly double the tour average), has 11 world titles (seven more than the next guy), and has competed at surfing’s highest level for 32 years, we’ll give Kelly a little slack.

The mid-year cut has no such sympathy.

No later than April 30th, the men’s and women’s CT fields will be cut by roughly a third, leaving those outside the ropes to either retire, chase the Challenger Series, or pursue early-onset surf commentating (hi, Jesse).

Despite Gabriel Medina’s unique arrangement in 2022 — wherein he skipped the first half of the season for ‘personal reasons’ and returned after the cut — there’s no guarantee that the WSL will offer a full-time wildcard to any surfer for the back-half of this year’s tour*. And considering the 2023 CT is Kelly’s last realistic chance to earn an Olympic spot, we don’t foresee him doing the tour again next year, even if he is granted a 2024 season wildcard**.

So, could Kelly’s historic career actually end with a missed cut at Margies? We wouldn’t wish it, but the math says yes.

The math

Trimming 12 men from a 34-man field, the mid-year cut is based on a surfer’s best four results in the first five events of the season: Pipe, Sunset, Portugal, Bells, and Margaret River.

Now three events deep, Kelly’s results are as follows: 17th at Pipe (1,330 points), 9th at Sunset (3,320 points), 17th at Supertubos (1,330 points).

Last year, the cutline fell right behind Jacko Baker’s milky white caboose at 9,300 points — that’s two 9ths and two 17ths in his scoreline. Assuming the numbers work out the same in 2023, Kelly will need at least a 9th in one of his two last events (Bells & Margie’s) to put himself inside the top 22. To be safe, he really needs a 9th at each event, or a 5th in one of them.

Can he do it?

Of course he can do it. But to get a sense of whether or not Kelly will make it to Lemoore***, let’s a look at his recent history at Bells and Margaret River.

Bells: Kelly is tied for the winningest male ever at the Bowl (4x), but his most recent results leave something to be desired (17th, 5th, 13th, 13th, 9th). He’ll need at least a 9th here to take some pressure off at the next event, at a wave he’s publicly denounced.

Margaret River: WA is the last tour stop before this year’s cut, and one of the few CT venues Slater hasn’t won (granted, the event wasn’t around during his heyday). But Kelly doesn’t need to win here — he only needs a 9th…or maybe a fifth. For reference, his last five results at Main Break are 17th, 9th, 13th, 25th, 5th. This is mediocre for the GOAT, but not totally distressing.

Despite a disappointing start to the season, you’ve gotta have faith in surfing’s Randy Ferbey to win a couple heats at the next two stops.

The next surfer on our list has a slightly more daunting task.

Steph

If you thought the He-GOAT was in perilous waters, our reigning female champ and 8x crown-bearer is in conditions comparable to those found within the chaos of a nordic storm.

Last year, Steph had a famously poor start to the season before turning it around and winning the title. This year she’s in an even worse position.

So far, her results are 17th, 5th, and 9th — if we’re to eliminate that 17th as her throwaway score, Steph has a total of 7,355 points in two events. In 2022, the women’s cutline fell at 19,105 points. This means, between Bells and Margies, Steph needs to amass roughly 11,750 points if she wants to make the cut.

What does that mean in terms of CT results? Here are the minimum two-event combos to get her over the hump:

-A 3rd and a 5th = 10,830 points (just short, but still possible to make the cut with this depending on how the numbers play out)
-A 3rd and a 3rd = 12,170 points
-A 2nd and a 5th = 12,545 points
-A 1st and a 9th = 12,610 points

So if we’re going off last year’s numbers (19,105 points), two 3rds is the minimum Steph has to achieve on the Australian leg to make the mid-year cut. Even Steph being Steph, you don’t love the odds of her pulling that off – especially with the new wave of talent on tour this year.

For reference, here are Steph’s five most recent results at each venue.

Bells: 5th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 5th
Margarets: 5th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd, 3rd

So she’s consistently finaled at both spots, but there are a lot of 5ths in that register — and 5ths are not Steph’s friend right now.

Should Steph fall off tour at Margie’s, the WSL will be left to answer a difficult question: does a reigning world champ missing the mid-year cut not make the very concept farcical?

Surely Steph would be granted a wildcard for the 2024 Tour, but at that point, would she even want it?

Other cutline notables to watch

Kolohe Andino

Current results: 17th, 17th, 33rd
Needs to requal (based off last year’s cutline — 9,300 points): Risky: 9th/9th; Safe: 5th/9th

Kanoa Igarashi

Current results: 17th, 9th, 17th
Needs to requal (based off last year’s cutline — 9,300 points): Risky: 9th/17th; Safe: 9th/9th

*Then again, if the WSL could ever justify handing out a mid-season WC, letting Kelly finish out his final year on tour would be as valid a reason as they come. Same goes for letting a reigning world champ try to defend their title (Steph).
**He hinted at retirement again recently here.
***Realistically, even if Kelly doesn’t make the cut, he’ll almost certainly get a WC into the Surf Ranch Pro (which is at his wave) and Tahiti (which is sponsored by his company). Sorry, Hog.