You might not know much about Ryan Kainalo, but Paul Evans did. See how Paul's Challenger Series predictions stack up here now at the mid-way point of the CS series below.

Some People You’ve Never Heard Of Are About To Make The CT

A Challenger Series rankings summary after the penultimate event of the season.

news // Oct 4, 2026

Words by Christian Bowcutt

Reading Time: 4 minutes

The male and female winners of the Banco do Brasil São Sebastião Pro — which concluded yesterday — have something in common:

You’ve probably not heard (much) of them before.

And this isn’t because the comp was obscure or the talent was meh. This was the third-to-last Challenger Series event of the season, and the first in which all CTers who missed the post-season cut competed. As stacked as it gets.

For example, some of the surfers featured were: Mateus Herdy, Ian Gentil, Crosby Colapinto, Oscar Berry, Joel Vaughan, Jackson Bunch, Sally Fitzgibbons, Kiara Goold, Teresa Bonvalot, and Sierra Kerr.

And none of them won.

That honor went to Brazil’s Ryan Kainalo and Australia’s Charli Hately.

What’s more? After this and winning the International 6,000 event in Europe, Ryan Kainalo is #1 in the Challenger Series right now, ahead of all those aforementioned names. And Charli jumped 36 spots up the rankings today, now scratching the CT qualification line.

So, here’s a brief overview of what happened today in Brazil, followed by a follow-up on Paul Evans’s Changas predictions piece from earlier this year:

In our recent interview with Miguel Pupo, Miguel mentioned that besides Arthur Vilar, the future of Brazilian surfing is less replete with excellent surfers than his generation was. No more Brazilian Storm. However, we’re apparently all forgetting about a Brazilian guy named Ryan.

20-year-old Ryan Kainalo took down both Peru’s best Lucca Messinas and CTer Oscar Berry on his way to the Finals. In the Final, he beat Australian Alister Reginato after posting a 7.67 under priority and taking the win in front of a home-country crowd. It’s the biggest win of his career thus far.

Even-lesser-known Charli (not xcx) Hately took down both Eweleiula Wong and CT surfer Anat Lelior on her way to a first-ever CS win. In the final, she scored a 7.83 en route to dismissing other fallen CT surfer Francisca Veselko.

Charli was chaired up the beach by Sierra Kerr — which may be just as much an accomplishment as the win itself.

Charli and Ryan are officially a part of the surfing conversation after these deserved wins.

Now, to Paul’s predictions…

Alister is an interesting case. On last year’s CS he competed in three events, didn’t make it past round 2 in two of them, won the third. This year, more or less the same. Appears to be a momentum guy. He’ll need (at least) one more keeper result this year if he wants to make the CT.

In July, Paul predicted that following names would be making their presence known:

Men: Winter Vincent, Shion Crawford, Levi Slawson, Dimitri Poulus, Bronson Meydi, Connor Slijpen, and to Paul’s eternal credit, the Oracle of Britannia picked… Ryan Kainalo. Despite all these surfers making a cultural impact this year, it’s only Paul’s final pick Ryan who has cracked the Top 10 above the qualification line. But the #1 spot has to earn Paul some points. Still two events left too.

Here’s what Paul had to say about Ryan:

The CS qualifiers from Brazil are something of a mixed bunch. If you’re looking for signs that The Storm is regathering, of strong upper air flow vorticity, well the forecast model is showing some uncertainty. Surfers with CT experience are Deivid Silva, Ian Gouveia, Edgard Groggia and Michael Rodrigues, while the unblooded include Weslley Dantas, Douglas Silva, Rafael Barbosa, Gabriel Klaussner, Vitor Ferreira — and Ryan Kainalo. Many future world champs among these though? Only time will tell.

Women: Paul picked Eden Walla, Ellie Harrison, Sierra Kerr, Kirra Pinkerton, Teresa Bonvalot, and Arena Rodriguez Vargas. He’s currently 4 for 6 in terms of the Top 6 above the qualification line. Like the Men’s side, Paul also picked the current rankings leader, Sierra Kerr.

Here’s what he has to say about Sierra — a surfing we’ve been waiting to see on the CT for some time:

Physics has Schrödinger’s cat, philosophy has Russell’s naive set theory, pro surfing has its own paradox: in order to access the premium locations of the CT, you’ll have to stand out in often suboptimal conds to be allowed to do it. Huh? Looking at Sierra’s tuberiding and you’d think destinations like Pipe, Chopes, Cloudy, Snapper — Cloud 9 if it sticks around — would all suit her, but the journey is via Huntington, Ribeira, Saquarema and Newy. Four QS wins in 24/25, including a statement one at solid Nias, topped off with a World Jr Championship win that season set her up for a run at the 2025 CS that was hampered with health issues relating to Lyme disease. Based on recent form in Palm Desert, she’ll be back this year and (hopefully) healthier.

The next event on the Challenger Series 2026/2027 season will be in just two days in Ericeira, Portugal — we’ll see if the new names keep knocking down the old.