Rookie Bettor Gets His Clock Cleaned At Perfect Pipeline, Comes Back For More
Take my money.
It appears my beginner’s luck has officially run out.
Yesterday was a blood-bath on betting front, as I lost all four of my Round 1 picks.
Zeke, Caio, Leo, and Miguel all placed second or third in their first heat.
“Classic rookie punting,” laughed my boss, Tom Bird, after seeing my approach to picking winners on America’s favorite surf-betting site, BetOnline.ag.
So I tapped a few underdogs — big deal. You can’t make much money on the top guns, and I thought betting was all about fast cash. Lesson learned, $100 down the drain. Time to re-strategize and hopefully recoup some losses on day 2.
Men’s Round 2 picks
This time, I’m going to ignore the odds and simply pick the surfers that I think will win each matchup. I feel that the man-on-man format will be significantly easier to choose, as there’s less room for outliers or general funny business.
So, here goes — 16 heats, and I’ve got eight hopeful winners. I’m putting $10 on each of the following, unless otherwise stated:
– Barron Mamiya (-175) over Conner Coffin (+135): B’s performance yesterday was absurd, more today please! (Potential win: $5.71)
– Leonardo Fioravanti (+140) over Nat Young (-180): similar to the Owen/Kanoa heat, but I think this one will go to the regular-footer. I’m actually quadrupling-down on this one, as I feel it’s the best odds of the round. $40 on Leo. (Potential win: $70)
– Miguel Tudela (+325) over Italo Ferreira (-550): Fine, I’m keeping one underdog. This guy is too good in the tube to not take the long odds. (Potential win: $32.50)
– Carlos Muñoz (-110) over Frederico Morais (-130): A little smaller, a few more rights than yesterday, and Carlos is gonna go click in. (Potential win: $9.09)
– Filipe Toledo (-110) over Ivan Florence (-130): I know Ivan is incredible, but with the waves getting smaller, Filipe’s odds increase substantially. And Ivan’s competitive acumen just isn’t there yet. (Potential win: $9.09)
– Zeke Lau (+190) over Seth Moniz (-250): I think Zeke and Seth are a pretty even match-up, and with the payout significantly in Zeke’s favor, I’m taking him. (Potential win: $19)
– Callum Robson (+200) over Ethan Ewing (-300): Cal was fucking sending it yesterday. If he makes a couple waves I think he’ll squeak a win against Ethan. (Potential win: $20)
– Samuel Pupo (+150) over Deivid Silva (-150): Straight up coin-toss on this one, so I’m taking the surfer who pays more—plus Samuel will have a better chance at Backdoor. (Potential win: $15)
Total Round 3 spend: $110 — some of these better hit or I’m screwed!
Last night there were BetOnline.ag odds for the women, but I can’t seem to find them this morning. Which is a little annoying, because if I had to guess, the women will probably run today.
I think the BetOnline folks are still figuring out how the whole no-real-schedule-in-surfing thing works — which to be fair, is pretty tricky and annoying for betting purposes. I think it would help a lot if they allowed you to pick heats mid-round, rather than shutting down the betting as soon as a round starts, which is how their system currently operates.
But hey, we’re all just learning — you, me, and BetOnline.ag.
In the meantime, I hope you’ll join me on this journey of enlightenment and financial mercurity.
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