Could Gabriel Medina Actually Get Cut From The Championship Tour?

Should Elo’s gift to professional surfing be a stayer on the Championship Tour, it would be fun to see the WSL sponsor a cutting tool that’s used metaphorically to hack off the bottom third of the world’s most elite crop of surfers. It could be an axe or a saw to further accentuate the “strong authentic alignment between surfing and tradies” — thank you WSL Asia Pacific’s president Andrew Stark — or some sort of sterile surgical device.

For the third year running, the right-handers leading to “the bricks” at Main Break (and if we’re lucky those also above the shallow reef at The Box) will set the stage for the remaining 12 Men and 4 Women to vie for their place above the MYC line. Those that don’t make the Cut will fly over to Snapper to prepare for the Challenger Series.

After Bells, 10 Men and 6 Women have officially made the cut. That is, their CT campaign will continue throughout the back half of the year and also the beginning of next. These are Griffin Colapinto, Ethan Ewing, John John Florence, Jake Marshall, Jack Robinson, Barron Mamiya, Kanoa Igarashi, Cole Houshmand, Crosby Colapinto, and Jordy Smith in the Men’s + Caitlin Simmers, Johanne Defay, Molly Picklum, Caroline Marks, Bettylou Sakura Johnson, and Brisa Hennessy in the Women’s.

The Numbers

Men: For the past two years, the Men’s Cutline ended at 9,300 points. This number kept Jackson Baker afloat in ‘22 and it did the job for Kanoa Igarashi, Ian Gentil and Seth Moniz in ‘23. We could go off this indicator directly again this year, however prior to Margs, the bubble seems to have floated about 300 points higher than where it was in those previous years. That is, Ian Gentil now sits on the bubble in 22nd position with 9,010 points. A noted trend is that the Cutline increases when contest results are more widely distributed among the field, which we’ve definitely seen so far this season — Ian’s 3rd at Pipe, Seth’s 5th at Sunset, and Kade’s 5th at Bells. So, we can expect the Cut line to be slightly higher than in previous years for the Men’s.

That said, a 9,300 MC line in the Men’s is mathematically possible again this year. It could happen if either of the Pupo brothers, Jacob Wilcox, Frederico Morais, or Caio Ibelli place 9th while either Ian is eliminated in the ER or Kade in the ER/Ro32. However, considering the line is already above where we saw it in previous years, and observing the talent of the crop looking to make a late charge, a truly ‘safe” Cutline for the Men’s is probably near 10,725 points.

Women: The women’s cutline was Tatiana’s 17,830 points (three 9ths and a win) in ‘22 and Gabriela Bryan + Bettylou’s 16,050 points (two 9ths, a 5th and a 3rd) in ‘23. Currently, Gabriela and Luana Silva are sitting on the bubble with 14,710 points (two 9ths and two 5ths), comparably higher than in previous years (Stephanie Gilmore and Courtney Conlogue’s 14485 points in ‘22 and Isabella Nichols and Macy Callaghan’s 13,915 points in ‘23).

Again, as with the Men’s this season, we’ve witnessed incredible performances by women who are probably wondering why, after their effort, they’re on the lower end of the leaderboard. Eg. Lakey Peterson’s 5th at Sunset and 3rd in Portugal, Isabella’s 5th at Sunset and Sawyer Lindblad’s 5th at Bells. These women in particular are still in with a shot at making the Cut, so, while it may come down as we move through the event, to be truly “safe” this year a rankings total as high as 19,105 points may be needed.

Remember that only a surfer’s four best results count (one throwaway). It’s one thing if a competitor can pass the dreaded Elimination Round, but the greatest reward in terms of ranking points will be earned by progressing from the Round of 32 to the Round of 16 in the Men’s or from the Round of 16 to the Quarters in the Women’s.

#33: Kelly Slater (currently 3,990 points):

Entry into the event alone guarantees Kelly 265 points due to him missing Portugal. After the ER he sits level with the #31 crew.
Safe: Make the Final (11,790 points +)
Risky: 3rd (10,075 points)

#31: Eli Hanneman and Deivid Silva (currently 4,255 points):
Safe: Make the Final (11,790 points +)
Risky: 3rd (10,075 points)

#30: Callum Robson (currently 5,180 points):
Robbo will unfortunately bank a 265 points result as one of his best four.
Safe: 3rd (11,000 points)
Risky: 5th (9,660 points)

#29: Caio Ibelli (currently 6,245 points) and #25: Samuel Pupo, Miguel Pupo, Jacob Willcox and Frederico Morais (currently 7,310 points):
This group will hit the “safe” line by making the Quarters and the previous two years’ MC line by making the Ro16.
Safe: 5th (10,725 points)
Risky: 9th (9,300 points)

#24: Seth Moniz (currently 7,670 points) and #23: Kade Matson (currently 8,735 points):
Both surfers need to reach the Ro16 to meet the predicted “safe” line.
Safe: 9th (10,725 points)
Risky: 17th (8,735 points)

—— CURRENT CUTLINE  ——

#22: Ian Gentil (currently 9,010 points):
Bypassing the ER puts Ian in “risky” territory. Bypassing the Ro32 puts him someplace “safe”.
Safe: 9th (12,065 points)
Risky: 17th (10,075 points)

—— PREVIOUS CUTLINES (9,300 points) —–

#21: Ramzi Boukhiam (currently 9,660 points):
If Ramzi can evade the ER he’s actually better placed than his immediate goofy-footed rival Gabriel Medina.
Safe: 17th (10,725 points)
Risky: 33rd (9,660 points)

#20: Gabriel Medina (currently 10,075 points):
The defending champ still has work to do if he wants to guarantee his safety. After his Ro32 upset at Bells I’d hate to think what kind of reaction we’d see if it happens again. His goalposts match those of Ian’s.
Safe: 9th (12,065 points)
Risky: 17th (10,075 points)

—— “SAFE” (10,725 points) ——-

#18: Italo Ferreira and Imaikalani deVault (currently 10,725 points)
These men have already done the work to meet the predicted “safe” line. A 9th place finish would remove any doubt.
Safe: 9th (12,715 points)
“Safe”: 33rd (10,725 points)

#17: Ryan Callinan (currently 11,000 points):
With a 33rd factoring into his current scoreline, Ryan’s position already clear of the Safe Line will only elevate further by evading the ER.

Women

#17: Sophie McCulloch (currently 6,265 points):
Continuing on as Carissa’s replacement, a win at Margies puts her just above the ‘23 cutline. This is more than likely not enough this year.
Risky: Win the event (16,265 points)

#15: India Robinson and Alyssa Spencer (currently 8,875 points) and #14: Sally Fitzgibbons (currently 10,440 points):
This group of surfers enter the “maybe” realm only by winning the event. Sally’s done it before.
Risky: Win the event (17,830 points)

#12: Isabella Nichols and Sawyer Lindblad (currently 12,575 points):
Winning the event will guarantee them safety. Isabella found her rhythm and did just that in ‘22.
Safe: Win (19,965 points)
Risky: 2nd (17,765 points)

#11: Lakey Peterson (currently 14,485 points):
Lakey is a regular Margaret River threat and the ‘19 event champ. She can challenge the rank of all current MC contenders above her by reaching the Quarters.
Safe: 3rd (19,525 points)
Risky: 5th (18,185 points)

—— CURRENT CUTLINE ——

#9: Luana Silva and Gabriela Bryan (currently 14,710 points):
Safe: 2nd (19,900 points)
Risky: 3rd (18,185 points)

#8: Tyler Wright (currently 15,630 points):
The ’16 prizewinner is due for a win. She’ll make it to safety by reaching the Semis.
Safe: 3rd (19,105 points)
Risky: 5th (17,765 points)

—— ‘23 CUTLINE (16,050 points) ——

—— ‘22 CUTLINE (17,830 points) ——

#7: Tatiana Weston-Webb (currently 18,185 points):
The contest’s 2021 champ will want to reach the quarters to ensure her safety, well above the predicted cut line.
Safe: 5th (20,320 points)
Risky: 9th (18,185 points)

—— “SAFE” (19,105 points) ——