Five men to bet on at the Oakley Pro, Bali

Woah, is the kinda-guaranteed-to-be most high performance event on this year’s tour really starting in a day? Phew! The surfing world’s collective Jaw has barely been scooped from the floor in this post-Kelly/Fiji world, and already we’re knocking on the door of Keramas for the Oakley Pro, Bali. That Dream Tour sure is anything but dull this time of year. So, what do we know? We know that the top five currently consists of (in order): Kelly Slater, Mick Fanning, Jordy Smith, Taj Burrow and Adriano De Souza. We know that when Kelly finished in Fiji, he was surrounded by a strange and magical aura. But we also know that in 2013, Jordy has arrived and ain’t in the business of taking prisoners (see also: Rio). Now that the tour lands at Indo’s answer to Trestles (with more punch!), Stab wished to learn behind whom we should place our money, if we were the kinda men to tango with such things. Luke Munro, ex-professional surfer and now the considered and authoritative surfing voice at TopSport, delivers us some candid insights, which y’should most certainly heed before dropping any cheddar. And, even if you ain’t a betting man, who doesn’t dig pre-game speculation?

Stab: Please, enlighten us.
Luke Munro: Going into Fiji, Kelly was a clear favourite. We had him at $4. There are very few certainties in this sport but Kelly Slater in Fiji was nearly one of them. He was our shortest price favourite ever in Fiji. Bali looks a lot different. I’ve got Kelly at $7, and we opened Jordy at $9. That’s the shortest Jordy has ever been. And, he’s been really well backed, and I actually thought we had him short enough but I’ve pulled him into equal favourite now at $7 with Kelly. Out at $12 for Joel, $10 John John, Mick is $18, Taj is $16.

Who’s your pick? Personally I just really can’t see anyone matching Jordy out there, I think the wave’s custom built for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is where Jordy starts his run. I just feel like its been coming for a while and he could win here and go on to win for a few years.

How about the goofyfooters? There’s no real support for any goofyfooters. At a lot of waves you could say nearly anyone will win, but at Keramas there’s no way you could say that. I really think there’s only five hopes: Jordy, Kelly, John John, Joel and Taj.

What’ll be scooping scores? I was there a few weeks ago surfing it and, pretty much, the maximum turns you can get in there is three, but that’s what’s so cool about it. And it’s going to be combos, it won’t just be one-manoeuvre waves. I really don’t think it’ll be barrels, I think it’ll be just about all manoeuvres. I think we’re going to see some of the best competitive surfing in history. I’ve been wanting for there to be an event here for eight or nine years. I just cannot wait to watch it.

Darkhorses? If it’s two-feet for the whole event, Filipe (Toledo) will be nearly impossible to beat. But if it’s bigger I think there’s way too much push in that wave for him to carve. I think if he has to surf any heats against those big dogs with any size he’s no chance.

What about the other rookies like Seabass or Nat Young? I think they’ll go well, but they’re a different class still to Jordy, Joel or Kelly. In my opinion, it’s similar now to six years ago when there was that big top five, when it was Andy, Joel, Mick, Taj and Kelly. It’s sort of similar now with John John, Jordy, Joel, and Kelly still in it, which is ridiculous. I think there’s a fair bit of separation there with those guys. The rest of the field you could just about throw a bit of a blanket over them. – Elliot Struck

OAKLEY BALI PRO ROUND 1 MATCH-UPS:
Heat 1: Adriano De Souza (BRA) vs. Bede Durbidge (AUS) vs. Dusty Payne (HAW)
Heat 2: Joel Parkinson (AUS) vs. Travis Logie (ZAF) vs. Fredrick Patacchia (HAW)
Heat 3: Taj Burrow (AUS) vs. Kolohe Andino (USA) vs. Yadin Nicol (AUS)
Heat 4: Jordy Smith (ZAF) vs. Matt Wilkinson (AUS) vs. Wildcard
Heat 5: Mick Fanning (AUS) vs. Brett Simpson (USA) vs. Wildcard
Heat 6: Kelly Slater (USA) vs. Damien Hobgood (USA) vs. Wildcard
Heat 7: Nat Young (USA) vs. Kai Otton (AUS) vs. Willian Cardoso (BRA)
Heat 8: Josh Kerr (AUS) vs. Filipe Toledo (BRA) vs. Kieren Perrow (AUS)
Heat 9: CJ Hobgood (USA) vs. Adrian Buchan (AUS) vs. Raoni Monteiro (BRA)
Heat 10: Gabriel Medina (BRA) vs. Michel Bourez (PYF)vs. Adam Melling (AUS)
Heat 11: Jeremy Flores (FRA) vs. Julian Wilson (AUS) vs. Alejo Muniz (BRA)
Heat 12: Sebastian Zietz (HAW) vs. John John Florence (HAW) vs. Miguel Pupo (BRA)

Watch it all occur, here.