Captain Obvious Alert: Filipe Toledo Will Win At Keramas

With all this Fiji business going on, it’s easy to forget that roughly 7,000 kms to the west of Cloudy, 36 of the world’s best small-medium wave surfers are ready to embark on another CT event at Keramas. And while you, like me, would probably prefer to watch a live webcast of the Cloudbreak session this arvo, most of us will compromise by having Keramas on the desktop and our fingers endlessing refreshing IG for live action from the Fijian channel.

It ain’t a bad way to spend a Saturday/Sunday.

But in this madness we must not forget: Fantasy Surfer waits for no man and/or swell. Below are some quick picks to get you through the Corona Bali Protected.

John John Florence: 10.25 mil

Call it a gambler’s fallacy, but I just can’t see this kid stumbling again. Keramas provides a near-perfect canvas for John’s rail-and-air heavy frontside approach, and should it be tubing there’s really no one better. I understand he’s got certain mental hurdles to overcome, but the fact that John doesn’t have Mikey Wright in his Round 1 heat (nor will he draw him in the second or third, thanks to seeding) makes me believe John will survive at least to the quarters here.

Sebastian Zietz: 6.5 mil

Like John, Seabass has had a rough 2018, but this event will likely be the one to get him back on track. Keramas’s hooking wall is the best type of canvas for Sebastian’s powerful, oftentimes wild frontside hack, which will make the judges swoon. I’m calling a him darkhorse for a finals berth.

Griffin Colapinto: 5 mil

Griff has fallen off a bit in the last few events, but it hasn’t made me question his abilities in the slightest. Because this venue hasn’t been on Tour for the last five years, CT veterans won’t hold much of an advantage over the rookies at Keramas. In fact, I think Griff’s laissez-faire approach to heats much just give him an advantage over the field.

Filipe Toledo: 9 mil

Captain Obvious alert: Filipe Toledo will probably win at Keramas. After proving last week that he was the best in the barrel, on the face, and in the air at Saquarema’s righthand wedge of Barrinha, Filipe will come into Bali with an utmost confidence and probably drop multiple 18-point heats. If there’s anybody more potentially lethal at this event, I certainly don’t know him.

Joel Parkinson: 6.25 mil

Parko won the last CT event here in 2013, which also happens to be his most recent podium-finish. Pretty crazy to think, isn’t it, that Joel Parkinson hasn’t won a contest in five whole years? If the waves are as good as the forecast proclaims, the CT’s younger, more explosive competitors will still be disadvantaged against the Aussie great. His tuberiding defies age.

Jeremy Flores: 6 mil

Speaking of tuberiding, and especially tuberiding in smallish rights, do you guys remember last year’s Pipe Masters? And specifically, do you recall the dark-haired bandit that snatched victory away from the local hero in the dying seconds, securing his second Pipe Masters trophy in the process? Yeah, J-Flo did that. And I don’t believe there’s a wave in the world more like small Backdoor than Keramas.

Italo Ferreira: 5.5 mil

At 5.5 mil, Italo is an absolute steal for his seed and/or talent, and considering his proclivity for backside hangers and rotations it would be silly not to have him on your team at Keramas. He’s the only goofyfoot I’m picking here, which will either be a really smart or really stupid decision. We’ll find out which, shortly.

Michael Rodrigues: 4 mil

Have you guys seen his Instagram recently? I realize these waves are ¼ the size of what Michael will be surfing in the event, but the levels of confidence and dexterity he’s been demonstrating make him impossible to look past. God this kid is good.

Carissa Moore: 7 mil

As far as the women go, I think Riss has gotta be the one to shine. After a series of lackluster performances throughout the 2018 season, she’ll look to release her soft-spoken anger into the meaty Keramas walls, leaving her competitors comboed in the process. 

Darkhorse: Courtney Conlogue

Coming off a serious injury goes one of two ways – either the surfer returns with an increased competitive drive and  decimates everyone in their path, or they surf conservatively and off-balance due to fear of re-injury and/or lack of practice. I don’t see Courtney choosing the latter.