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The World Title Scenarios

Stab digs speculation. This you know. Who in the surfing world ain’t getting swept up by this year’s climactic showdown? It’s been three years since we’ve been treated to a world champ decider at Pipeline. The last was a Mick Fanning/Joel Parkinson affair in 2009, where Mick scooped gold. But this year, it’s remarkably tight and chances for Mick are slim. Since when do either Joel or Kelly not make the quarters? After the O’Neill Coldwater Classic, the current ASP WCT Top five looks like this:

1. Joel Parkinson (AUS) 53,900 points
2. Kelly Slater (USA) 50,700 points
3. Mick Fanning (AUS) 47,000 points
4. John John Florence (HAW) 44,350 points
5. Adriano de Souza (BRA) 42,350 points

So, where does that leave us? With a beautiful mess of numbers and possibilities, each as thrilling as the next. Rolling into the Billabong Pipe Masters, here’s the world title scenarios:

If Joel finishes 13th, ninth or fifth at Pipe:
– Kelly needs fifth or higher.
– Mick needs to win Pipe to take the World Title. (But Kelly needs to finish fifth or lower at Pipe.)

If Joel finishes equal third at Pipe:
– Kelly needs a third or higher.
– Mick needs to win at Pipe with Kelly scooping fifth or lower.

If Joel finishes second at Pipe:
– Kelly needs to win.
– Mick cannot win the World Title.

Who do you like?

  • bb

    who cares

    • ron

      i’m just happy adrianos out

      • ron jeremy

        Broken record.

      • jiggamayne

        ha ha fuck yeah no brazzo world champ

        • fuckjiggamayneandjordan

          well he has ugly style and sometimes terrible attitude but has lifted his game in the past couple of years only less than kelly… so he probably deserves it more than mick and parko, who do the same shit they were doing in 2002. Parko probably deserved it when mick won his second, he is not surfing better now than then, and other guys are. and fuck you for writing people off just cause they are brazzos, shows how narrow minded MOST saxons are (if you even now what that is)

        • Aloha

          What a fu#”# is wrong with u aussies? Another racist act today on the news…. and all the Braza haters???? I just dont get that actitude from people who enjoy traveling around the world…. Are u loking for some intant Karma?? Cus its coming your way!

    • JORDAN

      COME ON ! ITS KELLY !!! 12 th 2012
      The 12s have it …………….

      • JORDAN

        DAMn Straight -USA USA USA Go Kelly ………

        • Susan Boyle

          you should have been drowned at birth

        • miguel

          man you are such a fuckin gringo. go kelly, fuck USA

    • wonker

      stop rating this comment^ i hate seeing this over and over

  • Mike

    Bring on a Parko Kelly final at Pipe!

  • Ceej

    Dingo wishes he was in the middle. #3degrees #coolangattapieshop #froggies #bugs

  • Rover

    Haha Bong will probably throw Louie, Occ, Rasta, Dorian, Towner, Bowen, and Longbottom into the draw to help Parko win his title.

    • Alex

      I laughed at first, but honestly, that would be such a sick contest to have all of them in. I’d love to see luke out there in a jersey, just making it his bitch

  • bender

    its hard to imagine Kelly or Joel not making the quarters, which could result in an amazing showdown. The 2012 title race coming down to the last day of the last event, thats an exciting thought. Lets just hope Pipe is pumping..

    • straightener

      you like repeating what stabmag says? blablablabla get a life idiot. And go surf

  • Ceej

    What do you do as a job Bender?

    • bender

      Ive got a desk job Ceej, and im having a bloody slow day today. Ive also got dual screens going (1 for work, 1 for play) and have spent half the day on various surf and news sites..

      • RThe sandman

        HA sounds like my day at work Heraldsun,Stab,Coastalwatch,Swellnet,Surfline blah blah blah blah and then a little work followed by a little grovell in some Ne wind slop.
        ah it’s a hard life.

  • Patrick Bateman

    It may be unlikely, but i’d love to see Mick come up the middle of this thing and take Pipe and his third title while breaking Parko’s heart into a thousand devastated pieces.

  • Mick

    Stab Ed – the numbers you’ve listed above are already adjusted not aggregated year to date. And there’s only been 9 events so far, with best 8 counting. Pretty 101 stuff, cmon …

    • bender

      they’ve got it right mate, the numbers show exactly where each surfer stands at the moment. (best 8 scores with lowest to date dropped). Unless each surfer improves on their current lowest score the points will remain the same.

      • Mick

        Yeah agree the numbers are right on adjusted basis but they explained em wrong. They said initially (since removed) that they were aggregated (i.e. unadjusted) scores (incorrect) from 11 comps run to date, with final rankings best 10 from 12 (also incorrect, it’s 8 from 10). No probs with the maths mate, they just hadnt explained the assumptions correctly. All good.

        • bender

          ahh i must have missed the removed statement..

          • dr zoidberg

            and now kiss each other

  • Pufulent

    Any word on which wildcards will be at which end of the Draw? Who is likely to run into JOB early in the piece? and at what point will Jon Jon meet em?
    THis could really effect the the way this plays out. If I were Bong I’d be throwing good $ at JOB to go easy on Joel if they happen to meet.

  • Mr Octopussy

    Whens Occy Surf ?

  • Reality

    Just like last year, when Rip Curl was prematurely ejaculating all over themselves to crown a champ, O’neill couldn’t contain themselves squawking about possibilities. Loved it when Kelly spoke up and said “ummm, no. Actually you are wrong, and Parko isn’t making a move at all with the throw away events. Every company wants to blow the champ during their event, no matter how desperate and uninformed they sound. Maybe Billabong will screen their wildcards too, so there is no chance of one beating Parko. What? Billabong doesn’t do stupid crap like that? Just O’neill? O’neill came across like amateurs putting on the comp. Bad commentators, bad webcast, bad marketing of the wildcards, and as usual garbage surf for the most part. Thankfully today showed some surf.

  • Reality

    Didn’t O’neill say that Mick was eliminated from title contention twice during the event?

  • Klink

    I accidentally hung a shit in my wettie the other day. Does anyone have any tips on how to get the smell out?

    • foreal

      piss in it….

    • the truth


    • Blunt

      Burn it

    • cowbell

      Give it to Adriano, he would definately claim it and it’d go hand in hand with his poo stance

    • emc

      @klink limes and lemons will take it right out

  • Rudy

    Let Joel have his turn

    • gary elkerton

      yeah and cheyne horan too!!!

  • kas

    Once you drop kelly’s & joel’s worst 2 events kelly is 250pts ahead of joel.
    – So pretty much whoever goes further at pipe out of those 2 will win.

    – if they both get the same placing kelly will win.

    – they need to both blow it + mick needs to beat both of them by 3 rounds for mick to win.

    parko’s gonna have a long month in the meantime, much luck.

    • badatmaths

      that makes it much clearer, kas

    • bender

      Not true mate – there is no point dropping the 2 lowest scores yet, as they have 8 counting results and can only drop their current lowest if they beat it. Should Joel drop early he will still have his current lowest (5200 pts) against his total.

      Kelly will only get the title if they both get an equal placing quarters or further. Should they both get 13th or 9th Joel wins. Mick needs to WIN, not get 3 rounds ahead, and thats only if kelly drops before the quarters and also Joel drops before 3rd.

  • Response to #20 by Wes.

    Due to seeding at Pipe, neither Kelly or Joel can finish lower than 13th (unless they get injured!). So if Parko turns up and surfs, and Kelly bows out before the quarters, Parko wins. Parko has to place higher than Kelly only if he (Kelly) moves past the quarters.

  • james

    isnt that maths wrong.
    if slater and parko both come 13th at pipe
    parkinson points = 55650 minus 2 worst placings (a 9th and 17th) = 49900
    slater points = 52450 minus 2 worst placings (INJ and 17th) = 50200
    would jimmy slade win if they both come 13th?

    • bender

      youve got Joels total wrong. He is currently 53,900 with his lowest already dropped. If he bombs out at 13th his total of all events would be 59650, still leaving him on 53,900.

      • james

        oooh k. i didnt realise that on the ASP website rankings that the column titled ‘total points’ actually means ‘total points minus the worst result’

  • james

    not 17th

  • Wong

    How could you say that was ameteur, there was a camera on a rope! Oneill, the future.

  • Jefferson

    Stab, did you copy-and-paste this “scenario” from the ASP site? Just remember last year mess. Renato Hickel still use his fingers to do a sum.

    If Joel finishes 13th, 9th or 5th, Slater will be champ losing his first heat. (Kelly 50200 vs Joel 49900 points)

    • bender

      you idiot mate. Joel CAN’T end up on less than his current 53,900 points.

      The above scenarios are all 100% accurate.

      • Jefferson

        YES, he can. Cos everyone mandatorily have to discard their two worst results. Currently, Joel has a 5th and a 9th to discard(9200 points against kelly’s 2250). To be the champ. he’ll need at least a 3rd, and has to be in front of Slater.

        • washington

          How can someone be as stupid as this jefferson guy? are you 5? discarding the 2 worst results, joel still has 53900 cause you can´t discard the second till youve done the tenth IDIOT. it would just not sum if he gets lower than 3rd but he already has 53900 on 8 results fucking retard

  • Adriano

    What happens if Joel finishes second and then Kelly finishes second too?

    • TARDmag

      then it means we are in another dimension where 2 people can come second and people like you werent dropped on their heads as babies. Please tell me you will never ever breed.

      • itcouldhappen

        if there was a terrorist attack and the contest should be canceled just after the semis, with kelly and parko in the final, do they get equal seconds or firsts? But kelly would win it anyway

    • Yep


  • Crank huffer

    Jadson all da way boy

  • micko

    what if they both win?

  • micko

    gab medina claimed that air that he landed off the back … awkward

    • ron jeremy

      Heard that, don’t give a fuck. Change the record.

  • Adriano

    Humor is not your strong point is it TARDmag. But I am ever so thankful that you let me know that Joel and Kelly both can’t come second.

    • TARDmag

      Its obviously not yours either

  • Es. Es.

    There’s something really shit about being able to win a world title without winning a contest.

  • The Professor

    What happens if Gerlach or Schmoo get a wildcard into Pipe? If they surf as well as they commentate I predict upsets galore. TNT, ZAP!!!

  • lordsword

    no world title is legit anymore without AI.
    kelly you know this is true!!!

  • JB

    Three fucken peanuts that need to go away!

  • bitter and happy

    Joel burnt me at snapper years ago so fuck that kant.

  • spitball

    when it doesnt count, you can count on taj.

    If Parko wins without a win, its a hollow world title. Might as well just give it to a hobgood and be done with it at that point.

    • Susan Boyle

      you’re a sack of shit. for him to win without an 1st would be better than kelly winning with three.

  • jim

    Parko an pipeline, lol

  • %

    Who cares? The only ranking that counts is the men’s world ranking, where all the year’s results are counted, and you know it’s the real one because:
    1st: JJF
    2nd Medina
    3rd: Slater
    4th: De Souza

    Parkinson being 8th…

    And I guess Medina will be 1st with his result at Santa Cruz. This is the real world ranking!

    • Bender

      Yeah but they only count wct surfers best 3 wct results on the one world ranking. Medina won’t be number 1 because he’s already counting his 3 best wct results (2,2,5).

  • arseneck

    john john

  • j

    World Ranking does not matter because it only counts QS Events and the 2 best CT Results

    • %

      Need reading lessons?

      “For ASP Top 34 surfers, their ASP World Ranking is based off their top eight results for the 2012 season from ASP WCT, ASP Prime and ASP Star events. They are only permitted to count their best three results from ASP WCT events.”

  • Lou

    Kelly should win it and then go into his long deserved retirement.

  • Jason

    John Eals is my Dad. LOL.

  • Ironic

    So much misinformation in the comments here… can’t believe the ignornace of some people!
    The scenarios above are all correct (I posted these scenarios in a comment on another article before this article, or the ASP version, even appeared).

    The basic rundown is that before the quarters, the pressure is on Kelly. Once they make the quarters, the pendulum swings and parko is on the back foot.

    • erlach

      ahhh man! the ingorance broo, the ingorance !! get fucked and go read surfer’s journal

  • Harsey’s Marketing Office

    To all Stab’s readers. This summer, Hershey proudly presents:

    The all new “Parko Cookie”.

    Eat it effortless.
    For the moments when you feel a wave of hungry.
    Approved by pro surfer Joel Parkinson.

    Parko’s line on the ad:
    “Just like myself… It doesnt matter how hard you push it, in the end it will crumble”.

    The all new Parko Cookie. Available on store after the hawaiian season.

  • Lucas Franceschini

    Parko wont make it

  • Yep

    Does anybody on here know the odds for this showdown?

  • Max

    I don’t understand how kelly can win if parko finish second at pipe cause he already have 53900 point and will get 8000 more points so finish with 61900 and kelly how have 50700 point will get 10000 more point with the win and finish with 60700. Is Pipe giving more points ?

    • rookiebiatch

      You only count best 8 of 10 results, you are counting 9 there!

    • Matt O’Brien

      Max, what the ASP is not doing is posting the 2 throwaway results that exist as of now: Parko has 5 = 5200 & 9th = 4000. if you add those up it is 9200 points. Kelly has iNJ = 500 & 13 = 1750. add em up it is 2250. so if do that scenario, Parko has 48,700 & Kelly has 48,950. that is a 250 point difference in Kelly’s favor. Instead they [ASP] only show the “total” with 1 throwaway result. that IS where all of this confusion lies. IF the ASP included both throwaway results they would have to reverse the places of Parko & Kelly with Kelly being #1! to me that is stupid because it is causing this misunderstanding among us the fans. I have done the math and kelly is in a better position than Parko based on the total of the throwaway results. I hope this helps… Basically if Parko gets a 9th and Kelly gets a 9th: Kelly wins. If Parko gets a 5th & Kelly gets a 5th: Kelly wins. If Parko gets a 3rd & Kelly gets a 3rd: Kelly wins. If Parko gets a 2nd & Kelly gets a 3rd: Parko wins. And finally, If Parko gets 1st and Kelly gets 2nd: Parko wins. This is pretty basic, except for the ASP making it difficult. cheer. GO Ke11y; I mean Ke12y!!

      • Matt O’Brien

        I mean Parko has 48,720. Fuck Now I am confusing myself! either way there is as of now a 250 point difference in Kelly’s favor. cheers…

        • think before opening your mouth

          you have no clue what you are talking ´bout my friend. If parko gets a ninth he gets back his fifth cause then the second ninth would be his throwaway, not the fifth. you can only discard one as of now cause its the best 8 results, and those 8 he already has. he can only substitute the fifth (his second lowest score) if he gets a third or better, but he won´t loose it if he gets a ninth. Are all you people like 5 years old or what?

  • To 71

    no, your mother is.

  • dee

    thom pringle is going to win the world title. his documentary was the most touching piece of film I have ever seen. The fact that the poor kid had to work for a few weeks in his life was heart wrenching..he deserves the title

  • Brian Shurette


  • Crackers

    what happens if Dane wins?

    I heard he’ll be #1 by unanimous decision with France result and Dear Suburbia video part. And 2nd place will be the topless girl from Dear Sub., third, Travis Logie, of course.

  • zapped a turn and a poo

    I zapped the craziest turn yesterday AND not only that but my front foot slipped out right into a crazy poo stance as I rode away it was fucking sick

  • saundini

    Funny ass shit – you bunch of cunts!

  • Ironic

    @ Max, because Parko currently is carrying 5th as his lowest result (because he’s already thrown away his 9th), he will throw away 5200 points if he places higher than that. So he can only add the point difference to his total, eg if he gets second he’ll add 8000 points minus 5200 points, so his total score will increase by only 2800 points.

    A lot of people are saying that Parko’s points will decrease if you drop is two lowest scores but this is not possible at all – either parko will not better his 5th, and he’ll cary that 5th in his total scoreline, giving him a year end total of 53900, or; he will better his 5th, and he’ll drop that 5th but pick up the points from the higher result, increasing his total to over 53900.

  • truth

    joel will win

  • FS Freak

    So are the top 12 seeded into round 3 at Pipe?

  • TheDixieSisses

    Hmmm . . . let’s see, Stab . . . since when has Joel not made the quarters at Pipe?

    2011: Kelly= 3rd, Joel= 2nd
    2010: Kelly= 3rd, Joel= 13th
    2009: Kelly= 2nd, Joel= 17th
    2008: Kelly= 1st, Joel= 9th
    2007: Kelly= 9th, Joel= 4th
    2006: Kelly= 2nd, Joel= 33rd
    2005: Kelly= 5th, Joel= 17th
    2004: Kelly= 5th, Joel= 33rd
    2003: Kelly= 4th, Joel= 2nd
    2011: Kelly= 3rd, Joel= 9th

    Joel has not made the quarters at Pipe for 7 of the last 10 years. Kelly, on the other hand. Has made quarters at Pipe 9 out of 10 times in those same 10 years.

  • Death to Response to #91 by wtf?

    Piss off, cunt.

  • Froth dog

    I didn’t think Kelly deserved until title until he attempted that fucking ridiculous backhand air spin when he lost at the lane. He came damn lose to making that. If he did I’m sure he would have gone and won. Go Kelly.

    • not a kelly fan

      sickest air ever if he landed it

  • Crustlapel

    thanks to me for suggesting this line of storytelling

  • Reality

    STAB gets their information from a group of 15 year old boys that do research after school for them. That is why they float absurd rumors of Dane being the O’neill wildcard, and have no idea of the easily referenced facts about Parko’s pipe stats. Of course the ASP is not much better, with Renato and his abacus trying to add up points for a champ. I bet John John wins the Tour, and all along no one realized he had enough points.

    • alkaseltzer

      if you did the math yourself you´d see you are an idiot. think before criticizing

      • Reality

        I did, Donkey, that’s called ‘sarcasm’. Read ALL the comments above, so you can get a feel for the topic before you jump in, grab a crayon, and start picking things to comment on.

        • alkaseltzer

          and I did too, just felt like fucking with you since only bender seemed to know what he was talking about from ALL the people above.

  • Armanio

    It’s clear Kelly is to win. He is BEST in the world and America is the BEST..
    Kelly Kelly Kelly number one

  • stronzius

    you guys have been deleting some shit here ah?

    • wtf

      ya they deleted the guy who had a huge press release saying slater busted his knee in sanata cruz… then he made 5 apologies too stab and its readers begging them to take down the posts

  • crackers

    another kelly win? how boring. but i think itll happen

  • Max

    billabong/ripcurl/quiksilver ?

  • miguel- poooooopo!!

    Brazzos are the shittest cunts such an inferiority complex. why come on an aussie website hoping to find some smack written about yourself so that you can get the shits and write about how pissed you are that aussies would say that.
    cant remember the last time i went on a brazzo surf mag website….probably cause i never would cause itd be super gay.

    • alzair izecson dos santos curitiba

      probably cause you fuckin saxon descendants can´t speak past the very basics of your own language. And it´s not only brazzos writing aussies off, i´m not a brazzo

  • miguel- poooooopo!!

    haha i just realised!! all brazzos secretly hate themselves

  • Renato

    Dream tour 2013 just confirmed

    Quicksilver Pro Gold Coast
    Zoasea Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
    Zoasea Drug Aware Pro, Margret River, Western Australia
    Zoasea Pro Macaronis Indonesia
    Hurley Pro Teaupoo Tahiti
    Hurley Pro Jefferies Bay South Africa
    Nike Pro Lower Trestles California
    Samsung Pro P-pass Caroline Islands
    Vans World Cup of Surfing, Sunset Beach
    Nike Pipeline Masters

    • ron

      well u fucked that up , Zo SEA would be alot more aligned with quick then ripcurl…but nice try..

  • love brazzos

    If Adriano was a white anglosaxon he would already have a world title….

  • surfcheck

    Its simple: Kelly has to win. Makes it fun

  • Scrotum

    37 are you a fucken chick or what. Let him have his turn? what is this the world championship of gayness? Let him win it like a champ.

  • start chomping

    I have an anus you can all come and eat it.

  • Cunt

    Who gives a fuck if it’s a ozi the coke will be lining up if a yank there will give each other reach arounds if a brazil nut the rice and beans will be on pro surfing is for faggots

  • Cunt

    If parko wins again he will have go straight to Betty ford I bet you he still is on it now rack me up js

  • wtf ?

    hahahaha, easy on the press conference style apology you spineless lizard

  • jokerman

    that knee busted i knew it was bullshit from the start.. you guys can’t take credit from that kind of shit. I would like to see joel win for sure… i really like the guy, mick would be sick too, but who knows, that bald mother fucker make the shit happen.. you never know what comes from that mother fucker.. ill pick kelly.

    (open a cold one artois right know!)


  • Cunt

    Why you bondi faggot

  • stronzius

    it wasn´t you. The first guy was gringo and you are a brazzo

  • Cunt

    Don’t drink fuck wit

  • Cunt

    Hate brazil hate the us and most Aussie are Fucken morons oi oi oi I bet you suck men’s penis

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