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Parko

Is Joel's special day finally coming? The bridesmaid dress's days are numbered. ASP/Cestari

Kelly

You've never seen a man more reluctant to relinquish a crown than Kelly. Photo: Rip Curl

Mick

In his 11th year on tour, will Mick scoop his third title? ASP/Cestari

John

Even if it ain't this year, a title's inevitable for John John. ASP/Cestari

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Never count out Adriano. He's due, and has the gusto to get paid. ASP/Kirstin

And to the man who would be King

It’s an excellent time to be a pro surfing fan. Even if you’re disgruntled with the recent Jules/Gabs outcome, there’s no denying the thrill of controversy, and the surge of passion and like we’ve never seen before (386 comments on our Rip Curl Pro, Portugal final day article). And that ain’t all. Simmering away not so subtly is one of the most electric world title climaxes you’ve seen in a long time. With eight events down and two remaining, we’re faced with the strong possibility of a Pipe showdown (read more on that below).

“I’ve never been in a title race with so many people so close,” Mick Fanning said recently. “It’s definitely something new.” Those ‘so many people’, in order of their rankings at this moment, are Joel Parkinson, Kelly Slater, Mick himself, John Florence and Adriano de Souza. And make no mistake – winning a world title when Kelly’s seriously gunning for it is as legitimate a way to do it as is possible in this decade (or the last).

Stab loves a hypothetical. But we also dig on possible outcomes. Who doesn’t? We asked resident ASP mathematician Al Hunt to indulge us with the official rundown, rolling into the O’Neill Cold Water Classic in Santa Cruz.

Joel: “Joel can only clinch the title in Santa Cruz if he wins the event and Kelly gets a 13th or worse, and Mick gets a ninth or worse.”

Kelly: “Kelly cannot clinch in Santa Cruz. Even with a first place and Joel a 25th, it will go to Pipe.”

Pipe: “If Joel gets a second place or worse, it will go to Pipe, regardless of the other contenders’ results.”

Contenders: “Only Parko, Kelly, Mick, John John and Adriano in the running. The rest have no chance.”

So, how’s all that taste? – Elliot Struck

81 comments so far...
1.

Dear santa

All I Want for christmas this year is 1 making clean west swell for the whole pipe event this year.

2.

Hey STAB, why does your mag always hit the shops before my mailbox?

3.

if parko win like that. it would be boring as hell. like that ceej world title. sooo boring!

listen up, i was baked at my house this morning and thought about something.
You guys know that song by The Police called King of Pain ??
I heard Julian Wilson’s new record coming out soon(ish) called: KING OF CLAIM.

4.

wow every stab article turns into a platform for blatant racism. I would predict mainly aussies, as racism is rife throughout their culture past and present. Also Julians claims are now the worst on tour.

5.

tell your boy Julia Wilson with his gay bangs to stop claiming too! most pathetic shit ever

1.

parko will win without winning a single event all year… captain consistent

    2.

    if parko win like that. it would be boring as hell. like that ceej world title. sooo boring!

    listen up, i was baked at my house this morning and thought about something.
    You guys know that song by The Police called King of Pain ??
    I heard Julian Wilson’s new record coming out soon(ish) called: KING OF CLAIM.

      3.

      on the same hand, i would like to hear MR. ACE BUCHAN or maybe MR. K PERROW. the ones who speak for the surfers about this Medina e Jules final.
      The always tell this and that about the competition every fuckin year.
      suddenly, they shut their mouths up.

      wheres KP ? wheres ACEY ? TELL THE JUDGES MEDINA WON BOYZZZ! C’MON.
      ooooo wait wait… they are aussies… there’s nothing they can do to put down their media fan boy.

        4.

        All I would like is for the ASP title to be earned fair and square.

        We can only hope the judging will be fair and surfers will be evaluated on both progression and technique. Its a sad day when you can’t even support your own sport that you once thought was progressive and exciting.

        I don’t care who wins..BUT would like it to be EARNED without controversy. Many of us have a sincere interest in supporting the sponsors and surfers, but when you lose integrity and credibility… it’s not worth paying attention or supporting.

        The jealousy, hatred, and bullying on these boards is juvenile. I can only hope we can see the big picture and not nit-pick on the little stuff that seems to get in the way. Peace brothas…

          5.

          i dont care who wins either… just as long as its not adriano

        6.

        shut up mate, that heat was not that bad, could have gone either way, but the fact is that everybody seems dislike Jules, for some reason…

          7.

          Well, I can give you at least 10 reasons no to like that spoiled brat, just like that.

      8.

      PERFECT: JULIAN WILSON, THE KING OF DOUBLE CLAIMS!

9.

Dear santa

All I Want for christmas this year is 1 making clean west swell for the whole pipe event this year.

    10.

    fuck yes

11.

c

    12.

    w

13.

micks going well in the votes…………

14.

Anyone but a brazo to win.

    15.

    anyone but your mama.

16.

Lets take this thing to Pipe and then Joel for the win!!

17.

The shit thing is is that Joel needs to better a 9th for his points to increase, kelly only needs to better an inj, and mick only needs to better a 13th..lets hope Joel can make some progress and at least get to the quarters! yew

18.

Hey STAB, why does your mag always hit the shops before my mailbox?

19.

Kelly is already ahead on points when you drop the two worst results. Parko is already no chance, Slater will walk it in.

    20.

    Really doesnt mean much at this point mate. Did you even read the article?

21.

anyone but that dirty fucken brazo stop claming

    22.

    tell your boy Julia Wilson with his gay bangs to stop claiming too! most pathetic shit ever

    23.

    Hello? Did you actually read the article? Al Hunt said: “Only Parko, Kelly, Mick, John John and Adriano in the running. The rest have no chance.” See? That means that “dirty fucken brazo” Julia stands NO CHANCE!

    24.

    There’s nothing more pathetic than racism…”Robby”.
    Why dont you get an education before putting hand to keyboard?
    Are World Titles defined by surfing talent, or nationality & skin color?
    I used to think Australians were hip, but I’m beginning to wonder.

      25.

      “Australians” – yeah cause either we’re all ‘hip’ or none of us… and you’re the one bemoaning racism… wow

        26.

        KABOOM! Great comeback. ps racism is bad and Parko has the best style and deserves the title.

    27.

    Robby, are you a girl? I say yes.

28.

yeah….but what about Stirling Spencer saving that drowning lamb with able support from K Robb…all time

29.

Only andy can stop Kelly from here.

30.

hahah who the hell voted for adriano?

    31.

    me

32.

come on parko ! its now or never

33.

no..you missed the point..Stirling really saved a lamb from drowning…thats shits real…

    34.

    Hey Ted fark off ……. we don’t care …..

      35.

      I care.

36.

wow every stab article turns into a platform for blatant racism. I would predict mainly aussies, as racism is rife throughout their culture past and present. Also Julians claims are now the worst on tour.

37.

Is this the same “resident ASP Mathematician” who tallied up Kelly’s points last year?

38.

I could see JJF winning. Consistent, no holds barred ripping.

39.

and what about travis logie? don´t count him out yet.

40.

i would say that mmmmm …..
kelly might or joel maybe could take it …..
not really sure ha ha.

41.

Bede for the title..

42.

joel is gonna be world champ without not a single event win

    43.

    buen sobrenombre pero aprende a hablar percutor o vas a percutar poco en australia
    and joel won´t be world champ

44.

i like kellys fisherman
shirt

45.

Come On… you know how this story goes…
King Kelly with reign with Parko as his reluctant bridesmaid

46.

Brazilian win a world title?? ha ha ha ha ha ha ha…. come on now, lets get serious on here..

47.

Adriano is the dark horse, he probably wants it more than anyone aside from Parko… He will be out of his mind hassling if he does well in SC…

48.

i STILL dont care who wins as long as its STILL not adriano

49.

adriano for president

50.

I just took off all my clothes and I am standing naked inside my house right now. I am not too sure what I plan to do. I’m nude, but am clothed in my skin. Should I put on my wettie…. MY FLASHBOMB and prance around town. I think I might. Also, I have a leash with no surfboard. I possibly could attach the leash to a table and walk around town with it under my arm. Naked with my leash to my table, the night is mine.

51.

Cool story, clearly a boogie boarder with your “Leash”… As a surfer, I use a leggy… How are you walking around nude when you put your Flashbomb wetty on?? How will you attach your “Leash” to your table?

    52.

    seppos call leggies leashes idiot.

      53.

      Australian website fag, couldnt give a shit what Americans call em… Now fuck off…

        54.

        You are wright. australian fags only for an australian website. I wont participate more and tell my american friends to start talking proper australian mate

55.

A note about the adjusted rankings: Even though Kelly is in the lead if you drop their two worst current results, that is misleading. Looking at it that way, Parko will be throwing away 9200 points. But, the other way to look at it is that, even if he skipped the last two comps, the least points he could possible score would be 52700. For Kelly to beat that, assming he doesn’t bomb out of any more events and he throws away his two current lowest scores (an injury and a 13th), he’ll have to close a 7750 point gap to close. Either way it’s gonna be a nail-biter and I can’t wait!

56.

Good analysis Ironic!

    57.

    good analysis but useless cause everything is already decided. You people really dont realize this is STAGED

58.

We can look at it this way too. In the next event Parko needs to better a 9th to improve on his 52700.
Kelly needs to better an inj (500 points) to close the 7750 gap you speak of.
We then go to Pipe, and depending what happens at the lane, shit is going to get real interesting!!

59.

Adriano has as much chance at winning the crown as Tiago has at making a heat

60.

If kelly gets a 3rd or better, and joel doesnt improve on a 9th, kelly will take the ratings lead. Lets hope that doesnt happen!

61.

If kelly comes 1st and joel comes 2nd then they will be dead even going into pipe, except joel will have to better a 5th and kelly will only have to better a 13th to improve his score. If kelly gets close to joel after then lane then he has a better chance of winning the title than parko, since parko will then need to better and 5th (the most number of extra points he could get would be an extra 4800 whereas the most kelly could get would be 8250). Parko needs to hold off kelly at the lane to have a chance at pipe! want me to keep going/?

    62.

    yeeeeees we love you yep

63.

I really feel like Joel deserves the title this year … to me he is riding a surfboard the best out of anyone on tour – just the little things like getting out of tubes, generating speed in transitions, reading the wave. You could say the carving at trestles was overwcored according to the criteria, but it WAS pretty sublime. Kelly has had moments of brilliance but isn’t flowing the same way on every wave like Joel is. Thats not to say he cant easily take the title but I hope Joel gets it.. Mick isn’t surfing anywhere beat the level of those two but is forcing heat wins with deadly strategy, wave choice, and competent surfing. John John can surf better than all these guys but not in a heat … yet.

    64.

    Dear Frothdog, this is the same stupid and wrong concept that gave Julian Wilson the title in Portugal: “Ohhh, re deserves…” Fuck!! The only way he can deserve is actually winning, with real scores and real surfing IN the heats, heat after heat to the last. That´s how Kelly Slater won his titles, and that´s how Gabriel Medina won in Portugal, but, as mr. Richie Porta decided, “Julian deserved”… SAD!!

      65.

      Obviously he still has to win heats dude. I just mean from a fans perspective I think Joel should win, I’m not insisting the judges take that attitude. But the judges have been throwing a few calls his way (va Jordy), but then again a couple against (vs Kelly at France). And please don’t say that Kelly has won every single heat fair and square, he has been looked at favorably by the judges ever since he retired the first time he retired. A close call more often than not goes to Kelly.

    66.

    Excellent analysis I reckon.

67.

joel has been on it all year long / GO Joel P.

68.

MF1

69.

Eh- what’s wrong with claiming waves? Different people have different styles. If nobody claimed ever they couldn’t look cool for not doing it. What’s wrong with getting excited about it? I’m rooting for Dane Reynolds to win an event as a wildcard and for Bobby Martinez to be in some successful surf movies.

70.

nothing wrong with claiming waves, it`s just gay when you claim a fucking lame pump or little cover up like Mr. Wilson did in Portugal

    71.

    gay’s ok man.

72.

Joel is awesome, great, beautiful, smooth, stylish and all those other hundreds of complements that the announcers give him in every comp, but he just won`t win because he doesnt have the FIRE

73.

Where are you getting yous stats from?

@Yep3, Kelly needs at least a 2nd place (not a 3rd as you stated) to take the lead after steamer lane.

@Yep4, if Parko wins Steamer Lane and Kelly gets 2nd, Kelly would have a 4000 point gap to close, not be dead even with Joel as you said.

I think it really is down to just these two now though – Mick is right there on the rankings but just doesn’t seem to have the momentum. John John doesn’t seem hungry enough yet (though definitely has the skills) and Adriano… well… if he wins it then I’ll get up on stage naked at Pipeline.

    74.

    yep4 stated that if kelly wins and parko gets second they´d be tied. ironic, you should really read before starting to ironize

75.

For kelly and parko it comes to pipe. So much could rest on the wildcard who gets the leader in the draw. So much could rest on swell direction. A big west would favor kelly over parko, but then again so would a big north. Parko needs weird inconsistent conditions to sneak through heats. So much could rest on john john. Johns future rests on the fickle waves and conditions of Santa Cruz. Where he is unlikely to do well. John deserves a shot at the title in pipe this year and Santa Cruz is likely to be a fuck fest. It always has been and always will be a negative backwater shithole with a chip on its shoulder. Which i guess could mean it will favor adriano for the win. Lots of drama this year at least. Parko needs to fucking win something , and without controversial judging, or his victory will be a hollow hobgoodsian travesty.

76.

Here I stand, with my australian flag draped over my white, supple body. Thinking. Day dreaming. Another day of hard yakka, gee wiz shes a go but.

77.

…who is this Kelly Slater you speak of?

78.

I’d like to put up vote for Heitor Alves to win. He does good rodeo and he should win title. (I claim this comment)

    79.

    Heitor is my favorite brazzo. So underrated … Serious power and still has the new school tricks

80.

Dion Aguis will be 2012 world champ

81.

does adm melling still have a chance to win the title?

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